Match Info

I Lyga - Round 15

Date: 26 June 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	DAZN Canada
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Lithuania	LNK
Usa	DAZN USA


	Garliava		Minija Kretinga

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.50	3.60	1.61
	4.65	3.65	1.6
	4.98	3.7	1.6
	4.79	3.66	1.64	Watch
	4.45	3.6	1.55
	4.12	4.01	1.7
	4.75	3.75	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.61 ↓ (4.69)	3.71 ↓ (3.78)	1.61 (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Garliava
19.6%

Draw
24.3%

Minija Kretinga
56%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.4%

24.1%

56.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

23.3%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Garliava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Minija Kretinga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Garliava than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Minija Kretinga than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Garliava - Minija Kretinga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90+1', 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ TOPLYGA).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Garliava won 3.

Recent performances by Garliava have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Minija is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Garliava may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Minija is the team to beat.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Garliava won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 1.7:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Garliava won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FK Minija	25	22	1	2	68:13	55	67
10	Garliava	25	8	4	13	31:28	3	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Garliava
Lithuanian Division 2
19.06.26	Garliava - Transinvest 2	3:0 ✺
13.06.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Garliava	2:1 ✺
08.06.26	Dainava Alytus - Garliava	1:0 ✺
29.05.26	Garliava - FA Šiauliai B	1:1 ✺
23.05.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Garliava	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLLTT
- Minija Kretinga
Lithuanian Cup
23.06.26	Minija Kretinga - Panevėžys	2:1 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
20.06.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Minija Kretinga	0:1 ✺
13.06.26	Minija Kretinga - BFA Vilnius	3:0 ✺
07.06.26	Jonava - Minija Kretinga	0:0 ✺
29.05.26	Babrungas Plungė - Minija Kretinga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
31.08.24	Garliava - Minija Kretinga	4:2
06.04.24	Minija Kretinga - Garliava	0:0
30.09.23	Garliava - Minija Kretinga	2:0
13.05.23	Minija Kretinga - Garliava	1:1
03.09.22	Minija Kretinga - Garliava	0:1
30.04.22	Garliava - Minija Kretinga	2:0

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