Match Info

Super Lig - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Eryaman Stadium (Ankara)

Referee: Karaoglan A. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 2


	Gençlerbirliği		Alanyaspor

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.25
	3.33	3.33	2.16
	3.42	3.45	2.22
	3.15	3.32	2.25	Watch
	3.3	3.42	2.21	Watch
	3.15	3.25	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (2.62)	3.35 ↓ (3.37)	2.2 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gençlerbirliği
29.1%

Draw
28.1%

Alanyaspor
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

28.3%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

28.8%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gençlerbirliği has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gençlerbirliği's form might have worsened.

Alanyaspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alanyaspor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gençlerbirliği than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gençlerbirliği, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alanyaspor than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alanyaspor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	16.7%	75%

Gençlerbirliği - Alanyaspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Gençlerbirliği will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Alanyaspor will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alanyaspor: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Gençlerbirliği (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Alanyaspor (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.86) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alanyaspor will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Gençlerbirliği (votes: 1 - 20%). Alanyaspor (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Erenturk E. (G) 13. Pereira P. 4. Zuzek Z. 6. Goutas D. (C) 2. Thalisson Kelven 77. Dursun A. 11. Gurpuz G. 35. Ulgun O. 15. Dele-Bashiru T. 7. Onyekuru H. 29. Niang M.	1. Taskiran E. (G) 3. Lima N. 5. Aliti F. (C) 50. Akdag U. 11. Ruan 42. Makouta G. 58. Maestro 88. Ozdemir Y. 27. Kaya I. 14. Hagi I. 9. Mounie S.
Substitutes
1. Akkan G. (G) 16. Ayaz Ozcan F. 93. Aydar Y. 17. Csoboth K. 23. Hanousek M. 10. Mimaroglu M. 8. Onur S. 90. Osmanoglu S. 88. Uzum F. 24. Velho R. (G)	20. Aksoy F. 30. Bruno Viana 6. Celik I. 12. Elia M. 16. Hwang Ui-Jo 17. Janvier N. 8. Keskin E. 4. Ozyurt B. 48. Paulo Victor (G) 10. Yalcin G.
Coaches
Eroglu H.	Pereira J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Hagi I. ⚽,
16', Akdag U. 🟨,
22', Niang M. 🟨,
27', Thalisson Kelven 🟨,
45+3', Lima N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Onyekuru H. ↓, Mimaroglu M. ↑,
60', Hagi I. 🟨,
61', Mounie S. ↓, Hwang Ui-Jo ↑,
61', Dursun A. ↓, Hanousek M. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Zuzek Z. ⚽, Niang M. (A),
69', 1 - 2, Hwang Ui-Jo ⚽, Hagi I. (A),
76', 2 - 2, Niang M. (Pen),
77', Ruan ↓, Keskin E. ↑,
77', Hagi I. ↓, Elia M. ↑,
81', Dele-Bashiru T. ↓, Osmanoglu S. ↑,
81', Gurpuz G. ↓, Csoboth K. ↑,
82', Kaya I. ↓, Yalcin G. ↑,
83', Makouta G. ↓, Janvier N. ↑,
88', Zuzek Z. ↓, Onur S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gençlerbirliği won 3.

Gençlerbirliği is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alanyaspor has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gençlerbirliği may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Gençlerbirliği: Etebo P. (Muscle Injury) Kemaloglu E. (Knee Injury) Koita S. (Red Card) Sahindere A. (Knee Injury) Tongya F. (Red Card)

There will not play in Alanyaspor: Bulut B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Gençlerbirliği: Kyabou M. (Inactive) Uzum F. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Gençlerbirliği won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Gençlerbirliği won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gençlerbirliği
Turkish Super League
28.09.25	Kayserispor - Gençlerbirliği	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Gençlerbirliği - Eyüpspor	1:0 ✺
15.09.25	Çaykur Rizespor - Gençlerbirliği	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Gençlerbirliği - Fenerbahçe	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Gaziantep - Gençlerbirliği	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TWLLL
- Alanyaspor
Turkish Super League
26.09.25	Alanyaspor - Galatasaray	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Alanyaspor	1:1 ✺
17.09.25	Fenerbahçe - Alanyaspor	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Konyaspor - Alanyaspor	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Alanyaspor - Beşiktaş	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
04.04.21	Alanyaspor - Gençlerbirliği	1:2
05.12.20	Gençlerbirliği - Alanyaspor	2:1
16.02.20	Alanyaspor - Gençlerbirliği	0:1
22.09.19	Gençlerbirliği - Alanyaspor	1:1
04.03.18	Gençlerbirliği - Alanyaspor	0:1
01.10.17	Alanyaspor - Gençlerbirliği	4:1
11.02.17	Alanyaspor - Gençlerbirliği	3:0

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