Match Info

ARGENTINA: Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 4

Date: 9 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo (La Plata)

Referee: Martinez S. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Disney+, TyC Sports Internacional


	Gimnasia La Plata		Godoy Cruz

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.3	4.2	Watch
	1.9	3.2	4.2
	1.95	3.1	4.3	Watch
	2.04	3.15	4.66
	1.92	3.17	4.65
	1.96	3.32	4.06	Watch
	1.95	3.1	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.28)	3.19 ↓ (3.19)	4.34 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Network on TV: TyC Sports

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Current Win Probability

Gimnasia La Plata
48.6%

Draw
29.6%

Godoy Cruz
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

29.5%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

30%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnasia La Plata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gimnasia La Plata's performance.

Godoy Cruz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Godoy Cruz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimnasia La Plata than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gimnasia La Plata that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Godoy Cruz than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Godoy Cruz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	13.3%	6.7%

Gimnasia La Plata - Godoy Cruz Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Gimnasia La Plata will win (votes: 12 - 80%). Godoy Cruz will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gimnasia La Plata: 59.8% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Insfran N. (G) 15. Pintado J. 4. Morales L. (C) 6. Suso G. 14. Silva Torrejon P. 5. Fernandez M. 10. De Blasis P. 38. Panaro M. 19. Castro L. 25. Sosa A. 30. Castillo R.	1. Petroli F. (G) 4. Arce L. 2. Rossi T. 23. Rasmussen F. (C) 21. Meli A. 13. Fernandez N. 5. Leyes B. 25. Poggi V. 41. Altamira F. 20. Parzajuk K. 24. Yanez B.
Substitutes
28. Corbalan F. 35. Cortazzo J. 39. Di Biasi F. 20. Giampaoli R. 1. Ingolotti L. (G) 29. Mammini I. 34. Mamut L. 3. Mastrangelo D. 16. Max A. 8. Merlini B. 24. Merlo J. 93. Moreno J.	32. Abrego G. 11. Barrea D. 77. Dupuy L. 29. Jara L. 52. Montivero G. 3. Moran J. 35. Pascual L. 50. Perez J. 10. Pozzo T. A. 6. Quiroz L. 12. Ramirez R. (G) 16. Santiago M.
Coaches
Zaniratto F.	Pedernera E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Morales L. ⚽,
30', Fernandez N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Altamira F. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
46', Parzajuk K. ↓, Dupuy L. ↑,
46', Poggi V. ↓, Pozzo T. A. ↑,
58', Arce L. ↓, Jara L. ↑,
60', Sosa A. ↓, Merlini B. ↑,
62', Yanez B. 🟨,
63', 2 - 0, Castillo R. ⚽, Merlini B. (A),
74', Yanez B. ↓, Barrea D. ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Castillo R. ⚽,
80', De Blasis P. ↓, Max A. ↑,
81', Panaro M. ↓, Merlo J. ↑,
87', Castro L. 🟨,
87', Rasmussen F. 🟨,
90', Barrea D. 🟨,
90', Castro L. ↓, Mammini I. ↑,
90', Castillo R. ↓, Di Biasi F. ↑,
90+2', Max A. 🟨,

Preview

Castelló is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fuenlabrada is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Castelló could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fuenlabrada is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Castelló won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 249:252 (average 83:84).

Including matches at home between the teams Castelló won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 77:73

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnasia La Plata
Copa Argentina
05.02.25	Gimnasia La Plata - Deportivo Español	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.02.25	Independiente - Gimnasia La Plata	2:0 ✺
29.01.25	Gimnasia La Plata - San Lorenzo	0:2 ✺
25.01.25	Instituto Córdoba - Gimnasia La Plata	3:0 ✺
Serie Rio de la Plata
18.01.25	Cerro Largo - Gimnasia La Plata	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLLLW
- Godoy Cruz
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.01.25	Sarmiento de Junín - Godoy Cruz	0:0 ✺
23.01.25	Godoy Cruz - Rosario Central	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
14.01.25	Coquimbo Unido - Godoy Cruz	1:2 ✺
11.01.25	Universidad de Chile - Godoy Cruz	4:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
14.12.24	Instituto Córdoba - Godoy Cruz	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.10.24	Gimnasia La Plata - Godoy Cruz	0:1
19.05.23	Godoy Cruz - Gimnasia La Plata	2:0
05.08.22	Gimnasia La Plata - Godoy Cruz	2:0
05.09.21	Godoy Cruz - Gimnasia La Plata	4:0
05.10.19	Godoy Cruz - Gimnasia La Plata	2:4
06.10.18	Gimnasia La Plata - Godoy Cruz	1:0
15.10.17	Godoy Cruz - Gimnasia La Plata	3:0

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