Match Info

Sergipano - Round 8

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday


	Guarany de Porto da Folha		Falcon

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.1	3.25
	2	2.99	3.7
	2.05	3.1	3.53
	2.05	2.9	3.5
	2.01	3.04	3.63
	2	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.22)	3.02 ↓ (3.25)	3.56 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarany de Porto da Folha
44.6%

Draw
30%

Falcon
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

28%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

26.6%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarany de Porto da Folha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Falcon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Falcon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarany de Porto da Folha than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Falcon than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Guarany de Porto da Folha - Falcon Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Guarany PF (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guarany PF (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
83', 0 - 1, Andre Castro ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9 in the zone Relegation).

Guarany PF is Qualified for Sergipano (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Guarany PF has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Falcon has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Falcon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Guarany PF might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Guarany PF won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Including home match between the teams, Guarany PF won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarany de Porto da Folha
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
08.02.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Desportiva Aracaju	2:1 ✺
05.02.26	Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Atlético Gloriense	3:2 ✺
25.01.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - América de Propriá	0:0 ✺
21.01.26	Lagarto - Guarany de Porto da Folha	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWTL
- Falcon FC
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
07.02.26	América de Propriá - Falcon	2:1 ✺
03.02.26	Falcon - Atlético Gloriense	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Dorense - Falcon	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Falcon - Sergipe	0:2 ✺
21.01.26	Confiança - Falcon	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
15.02.25	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Falcon	2:0

Guarany de Porto da Folha - Falcon: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide