Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 6

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Pietro Barbetti (Gubbio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Gubbio		Ostia Mare

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	3.10	2.85
	2.25	3.15	2.95	Watch
	2.39	3.3	3.07
	2.37	3.17	2.86	Watch
	2.35	3.25	2.85
	2.3	3.1	2.85	Watch
	2.26	3.15	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (1.97)	3.17 ↓ (3.22)	2.91 ↓ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Gubbio
39.7%

Draw
28.8%

Ostia Mare
31.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.8%

28.6%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

27.5%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gubbio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gubbio's form might have worsened.

Ostia Mare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ostia Mare's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gubbio than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gubbio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ostia Mare than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ostia Mare, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gubbio - Ostia Mare Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bagnolini N. (G) 27. Podda L. 15. Signorini A. (C) 6. Barry O. 3. Meconi E. 17. Fazzi N. 47. Di Noia G. 8. Rosaia G. 24. Piomboni L. 7. Spina M. 10. La Mantia A.	1. Vertua F. (G) 4. Piroli D. (C) 13. Brosco R. 5. Giordani P. 66. Castaldo A. 77. Tosku F. 32. Casolari F. 8. Greco D. 71. Carbone F. 17. D'Andrea F. 11. Parigini V.
Substitutes
92. Baldini E. 76. Barani L. 12. Barbanera L. (G) 4. Baroncelli L. 81. Beretta G. 14. Cardascio A. 22. Marson L. (G) 33. Santamaria M. 26. Toska K. 34. Zallu F. 21. Zorzetto B.	10. Badje I. 6. Buono D. 30. Donsah G. 12. Fabiano A. (G) 18. Felici N. 14. Galastri F. 16. Gerbaudo M. 22. Morlupo A. (G) 23. Spinosa M. 24. Tesauro E. 9. Tonin R. 27. Vagnoni M. 19. Wade I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
22', Meconi E. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Parigini V. (Penalty Awarded),
44', Barry O. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 2, Carbone F. ⚽, Tosku F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Signorini A. ↓, Baroncelli L. ↑,
50', Parigini V. 🟨,
54', Meconi E. ↓, Barani L. ↑,
54', Piomboni L. ↓, Baldini E. ↑,
54', Parigini V. ↓, Tonin R. ↑,
64', Piroli D. ↓, Vagnoni M. ↑,
72', Spina M. ↓, Zallu F. ↑,
82', D'Andrea F. ↓, Badje I. ↑,
83', Castaldo A. ↓, Tesauro E. ↑,
83', Tosku F. ↓, Donsah G. ↑,
83', Rosaia G. ↓, Toska K. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 10th in the Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 17th in the Serie C ~ Play Out).

Gubbio has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Ostia Mare has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Gubbio could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Ostiamare	9	2	3	4	9:10	-1	9
18	Gubbio	9	2	1	6	10:18	-8	7

Last Results with these Odds

Gubbio - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 46.76%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Gubbio 1910
Italian Serie C Group B
16.09.26	Pescara - Gubbio	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Gubbio - Latina	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Campobasso - Gubbio	2:4 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Gubbio - Vis Pesaro	5:0 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
30.08.26	Gubbio - Reggiana	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 TWWWL
- AS Ostia Mare Lido Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
16.09.26	Ostia Mare - Ravenna	0:1 ✺
13.09.26	Sassari Torres - Ostia Mare	3:2 ✺
05.09.26	Vis Pesaro - Ostia Mare	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Ostia Mare - Grosseto	1:2 ✺
23.08.26	Perugia - Ostia Mare	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLWLL

Upcoming Matches