Match Info

1. Lig - Round 10

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Mersin Stadyumu (Mersin)

Referee: Tokail F. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Hatayspor		Çorum

	1	X	2
	7	5.25	1.3	Watch
	8.46	5.72	1.25
	8.96	5.91	1.3
	8.35	5.4	1.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.19 ↑ (4.76)	5.57 ↑ (3.91)	1.29 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hatayspor
11.3%

Draw
16.6%

Çorum
72.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.4%

23.6%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

22.9%

58.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hatayspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hatayspor's form might have worsened.

Çorum has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Çorum's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hatayspor than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hatayspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Çorum than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Çorum, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Hatayspor - Çorum Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Çorum will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Çorum will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bekaj V. (G) 2. Corekci K. (C) 17. Alici K. 3. Kilama G. 13. Aksoy E. 55. Hodzic A. 11. Okoronkwo J. 61. Parmak A. 10. Strandberg C. 5. Saglam G. 14. Rui Pedro	13. Sehic I. (G) 23. Ergun U. 3. Attamah J. 15. Sengul A. 39. Kas E. 10. Erdogan Y. (C) 18. Samudio B. 20. Gurbulak O. 33. Caglayan O. 14. Pedrinho 9. Aleksic D.
Substitutes
33. Aydemir E. 7. Bamgboye F. 95. Buz Y. A. 78. Daduk E. (G) 18. Durmushan U. 31. Matur O. 6. Sarka B. 97. Sen M. 16. Temel S. 20. Yildiz A.	8. Akkaynak A. 11. Akyildiz S. 90. Eze E. 22. Kalafat K. 99. Karadag E. 1. Kivanc A. (G) 88. Osmanpasa C. 19. Sertel C. 78. Seven K. 6. Yazgan F.
Coaches
Almeida H.	Cavus C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Erdogan Y. ⚽, Samudio B. (A),
25', 0 - 2, Aleksic D. ⚽, Pedrinho (A),
40', Strandberg C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Aksoy E. ↓, Matur O. ↑,
46', Hodzic A. ↓, Bamgboye F. ↑,
50', Kilama G. 🟨,
56', Ergun U. 🟨,
63', 0 - 3, Samudio B. ⚽, Erdogan Y. (A),
71', Rui Pedro 🟨,
77', Strandberg C. ↓, Buz Y. A. ↑,
78', Samudio B. ↓, Akyildiz S. ↑,
78', Gurbulak O. ↓, Akkaynak A. ↑,
78', Aleksic D. ↓, Yazgan F. ↑,
79', 0 - 4, Akkaynak A. ⚽, Caglayan O. (A),
83', Erdogan Y. ↓, Eze E. ↑,
85', Saglam G. ↓, Temel S. ↑,
85', Okoronkwo J. ↓, Durmushan U. ↑,
86', Kas E. ↓, Sertel C. ↑,
90+2', Corekci K. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 4, Temel S. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Hatayspor is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Çorum's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Çorum may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Çorum is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Çorum: Akinay H. (Finger Injury)

There are questionable in Hatayspor: Alici K. (Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hatayspor
Turkish First League
05.10.25	Bodrumspor - Hatayspor	5:0 ✺
28.09.25	Hatayspor - Bandırmaspor	0:3 ✺
23.09.25	Igdirspor - Hatayspor	4:2 ✺
19.09.25	Hatayspor - Boluspor	2:2 ✺
Turkish Cup
16.09.25	Hatayspor - Erciyes 38	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLTL
- Çorum FK
Turkish First League
03.10.25	Çorum - Manisa FK	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Umraniyespor - Çorum	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	Çorum - Serik Belediyespor	1:1 ✺
19.09.25	İstanbulspor - Çorum	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Çorum - Vanspor	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WTTLT

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