Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 10

Date: 16 September 2025, Tuesday


	Hebburn Town		Workington

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.6	3.1
	1.75	3.65	3.75
	2.71	2.05	4.58	Watch
	1.75	3.7	3.9
	1.93	3.54	3.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.25)	3.31 ↓ (3.75)	3.74 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hebburn Town
46.6%

Draw
28.3%

Workington
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

24%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

23.2%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hebburn Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hebburn Town's performance.

Workington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Workington might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hebburn Town than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hebburn Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Workington than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Workington could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Hebburn Town - Workington Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hebburn (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Rigg S. ⚽,
27', 1 - 1, Darcy C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
89', 2 - 1, Charlton K. ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Hebburn may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hebburn won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Hebburn won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Hebburn Town - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hebburn Town
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Curzon Ashton - Hebburn Town	4:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
09.09.25	Morpeth Town - Hebburn Town	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Hebburn Town - Hyde United	3:3 ✺
25.08.25	Whitby Town - Hebburn Town	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Hebburn Town - Cleethorpes Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LTTWW
- Workington
English NPL Premier Division
09.09.25	Workington - United of Manchester	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Bamber Bridge - Workington	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	Lancaster City - Workington	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Workington - Ashton United	1:1 ✺
19.08.25	Workington - Warrington Rylands	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
01.01.25	Hebburn Town - Workington	3:1
26.08.24	Workington - Hebburn Town	2:1

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