Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 12

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday


	Heraclea		Francavilla

	1	X	2
	2.11	3.33	3.15	Watch
	2	3.28	3.37
	2.09	3.25	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (2.06)	3.29 ↑ (3.1)	3.24 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heraclea
44.1%

Draw
27.7%

Francavilla
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

28.8%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

27.3%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heraclea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Francavilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heraclea than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francavilla than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Heraclea - Francavilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', 0 - 1, Padilla I. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group H (Play Offs: ) and 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group H (Play Out: )).

Heraclea has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Francavilla's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Heraclea will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heraclea Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
09.11.25	Sarnese - Heraclea	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Heraclea - Fidelis Andria	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Virtus Francavilla - Heraclea	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Heraclea - Nardo	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Acerrana - Heraclea	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WTWWW
- FC Francavilla
Italian Serie D - Group H
09.11.25	Francavilla - Nardo	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Città di Fasano - Francavilla	3:2 ✺
26.10.25	Francavilla - Nola	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
22.10.25	Francavilla - Martina Calcio	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie D - Group H
19.10.25	Real Normanna - Francavilla	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TLTWT

Heraclea - Francavilla: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide