Match Info

Regionalliga Sudwest - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday


	Homburg		Bayern Alzenau

	1	X	2
	1.2	6.3	9.8
	1.21	6.35	8.98
	1.23	6.08	9.04
	1.22	5.5	9
	1.18	6.25	10.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↓ (1.31)	6.1 ↑ (5.43)	9.42 ↑ (7.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Homburg
75.4%

Draw
14.9%

Bayern Alzenau
9.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.1%

16.9%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

12.2%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Homburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Homburg's performance.

Bayern Alzenau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Homburg than the current prediction. (-24.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Homburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Alzenau than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayern Alzenau could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Homburg - Bayern Alzenau Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Qenaj A. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Boutakhrit J. ⚽,
21', 2 - 1, Ristl M. ⚽,
31', 3 - 1, El Helwe H. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
78', 4 - 1, Inanoglu K. ⚽,
85', 5 - 1, Mendler M. (Penalty Awarded),
88', 5 - 2, Boutakhrit J. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 15 in the zone Relegation).

Bayern Alzenau is Relegated to

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Homburg won 2.

Recent performances by Homburg have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bayern Alzenau is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Homburg is the clear favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Homburg won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Homburg won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 2.3:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	FC 08 Homburg	10	4	3	3	13:13	0	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC 08 Homburg
German Regionalliga Sudwest
03.05.26	Stuttgarter Kickers - Homburg	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Homburg - Barockstadt Fulda-Lehnerz	1:1 ✺
21.04.26	Homburg - Eintracht Trier	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	FSV Frankfurt - Homburg	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Homburg - Freiberg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLTW
- Bayern Alzenau
German Regionalliga Sudwest
02.05.26	Bayern Alzenau - FSV Frankfurt	1:3 ✺
25.04.26	Bayern Alzenau - Sandhausen	1:2 ✺
21.04.26	Astoria Walldorf - Bayern Alzenau	0:3 ✺
18.04.26	Bayern Alzenau - Sonnenhof Großaspach	1:4 ✺
10.04.26	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehnerz - Bayern Alzenau	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Sudwest
08.11.25	Bayern Alzenau - Homburg	1:1
05.06.21	Homburg - Bayern Alzenau	3:0
19.12.20	Bayern Alzenau - Homburg	2:2
23.11.19	Bayern Alzenau - Homburg	0:2
27.07.19	Homburg - Bayern Alzenau	1:2
14.05.13	Homburg - Bayern Alzenau	3:3

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