Match Info

Serie D - Round 5

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday


	Independência		Porto Velho

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.3	1.8
	3.4	3.2	1.98
	3.48	3.35	2.08
	3.62	2.94	2.13	Watch
	4	3.1	1.8
	3.53	3	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↑ (3.32)	3.15 ↓ (3.3)	1.98 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independência
25%

Draw
28.9%

Porto Velho
46.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

27.6%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

25.5%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independência has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Porto Velho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independência than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto Velho than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Independência - Porto Velho Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Thomaz Kenedi 🟥,
45', 1 - 0, Bello K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', 1 - 1, Yan Philippe ⚽,

Preview

Recent performances by Independência have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Porto Velho is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Independência may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Porto Velho could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independência FC
Brazilian Copa Norte
29.04.26	Independência - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
26.04.26	Araguaína - Independência	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
15.04.26	Paysandu - Independência	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
12.04.26	Independência - Humaitá	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
08.04.26	Trem - Independência	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WTLWL
- Porto Velho EC
Brazilian Copa Norte
29.04.26	Porto Velho - Águia de Marabá	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
25.04.26	Guaporé - Porto Velho	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Porto Velho - Araguaína	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
15.04.26	Amazonas - Porto Velho	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
12.04.26	Porto Velho - Galvez	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLLLW

Independência - Porto Velho: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide