Match Info

NIFL Championship - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Institute FC		Newington

	1	X	2
	3.60	3.90	1.70
	3.4	3.7	1.85
	3.66	3.65	1.72
	3.63	3.89	1.8	Watch
	3.55	3.55	1.69
	3.54	4.4	1.85
	3.3	3.7	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↑ (2.94)	3.83 ↓ (3.92)	1.78 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Institute FC
25.6%

Draw
23.6%

Newington
50.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

23.7%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

23.4%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Institute FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Institute FC's form might have worsened.

Newington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newington's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Institute FC than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Institute FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newington than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newington, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Institute FC - Newington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
2nd Half (4 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes the league leaders in an exciting contest (ranked 9th in the NIFL Championship (Relegation Group: ) and 1st in the Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Institute won 0.

Institute is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Newington is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Newington is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Institute has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:26 (averaging 1.6:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Institute against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 13:14 goals (averaging 1.6:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Newington	10	6	2	2	24:18	6	20
5	Institute	10	5	1	4	20:17	3	16

Last Results with these Odds

Institute FC - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 31.72%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Institute FC
Northern Irish Championship
26.09.26	Annagh United - Institute FC	5:0 ✺
05.09.26	Rathfriland Rangers - Institute FC	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Institute FC - Newry City	1:3 ✺
22.08.26	Queens University Belfast - Institute FC	4:1 ✺
15.08.26	Institute FC - Loughgall	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWLLT
- Newington FC
Northern Irish Championship
26.09.26	Newington - Ballinamallard United	4:0 ✺
28.08.26	Strabane Athletic - Newington	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Newington - Rathfriland Rangers	4:0 ✺
15.08.26	Newington - Queens University Belfast	2:1 ✺
11.08.26	Loughgall - Newington	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Championship
30.12.25	Institute FC - Newington	3:3
29.11.25	Newington - Institute FC	4:1
20.09.25	Institute FC - Newington	0:1
01.04.25	Institute FC - Newington	3:3
30.12.24	Newington - Institute FC	2:0
26.10.24	Newington - Institute FC	0:1
21.09.24	Institute FC - Newington	4:0

Institute FC - Newington: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide