Match Info

Primera Division - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez (Metapán)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Isidro Metapán		INCA-Aruba

	1	X	2
	1.30	4.60	8.25
	1.32	4.50	7.50
	1.32	4.73	9.49
	1.35	4.57	9.14	Watch
	1.29	4.75	9.45
	1.33	5.17	8.04
	1.29	4.50	8.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.32)	4.69 ↑ (4.5)	8.55 ↑ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Isidro Metapán
69.7%

Draw
19.5%

INCA-Aruba
10.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

20%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71%

19.2%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Isidro Metapán has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

INCA-Aruba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Isidro Metapán than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for INCA-Aruba than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Isidro Metapán - INCA Aruba Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+2', 0 - 1, Narvaez M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Narvaez M. 🟥,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

Isidro Metapán has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

INCA-Aruba is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Isidro Metapán may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Isidro Metapán is the obvious favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Metapan	13	8	2	3	20:12	8	26
9	Inca Aruba	14	4	4	6	12:23	-11	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Isidro Metapán
El Salvador Primera Division
28.08.26	Municipal Limeño - Isidro Metapán	3:1 ✺
22.08.26	Isidro Metapán - Alianza San Miguel	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Fuerte San Francisco - Isidro Metapán	1:0 ✺
07.08.26	Isidro Metapán - Águila	2:1 ✺
02.08.26	Atlético Balboa - Isidro Metapán	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLWT
- CD INCA-Aruba
El Salvador Primera Division
28.08.26	INCA-Aruba - Cacahuatique	1:1 ✺
21.08.26	Inter Santa Tecla - INCA-Aruba	4:1 ✺
16.08.26	INCA-Aruba - Luis Ángel Firpo	0:0 ✺
08.08.26	Platense Municipal Zacatecoluca - INCA-Aruba	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	INCA-Aruba - CD FAS	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLTLL

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