Match Info

BRAZIL: BAIANO - ROUND 7

Date: 14 February 2024, Wednesday


	Itabuna		Barcelona de Ilhéus

	1	X	2
	3.4	3	2
	3.75	3.2	2	Watch
	3.35	2.97	1.94
	3.47	2.97	2.03
	2.8	3	2.3
	3.5	3.1	2.05
	3.5	3.05	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (2.38)	3.04 ↑ (3)	2.05 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabuna
26.5%

Draw
29.6%

Barcelona de Ilhéus
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

29.8%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

32.2%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Itabuna's form might have worsened.

Barcelona de Ilhéus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barcelona de Ilhéus's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabuna than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Itabuna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona de Ilhéus than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Barcelona de Ilhéus, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	9.1%	54.5%

Itabuna - Barcelona de Ilhéus Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Itabuna will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Barcelona will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jorge (G) 29. Carlinhos 31. Diego Augusto (C) 8. Gabriel Pereira 20. Guilherme Ivo 10. Jussimar 16. Maikon 11. Reinaldo 9. Romario 14. Vinicius Tsumita 4. Vital	12. Thiago Passos (G) 5. Bruno Ritter 9. Cesinha 31. Dionas Bruno 10. Hadrian 22. Hugo Moura 98. Jaques 11. Natan Andre 8. Ramires (C) 66. Reginaldo 13. Weslley

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Itabuna could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Itabuna won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Itabuna EC
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
07.02.24	Bahia - Itabuna	5:0 ✺
01.02.24	Juazeirense - Itabuna	1:1 ✺
29.01.24	Itabuna - Jacuipense	3:1 ✺
23.01.24	Itabuna - Bahia de Feira	1:1 ✺
18.01.24	Jacobina - Itabuna	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTWTT
- Barcelona de Ilhéus
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
04.02.24	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jacuipense	1:0 ✺
31.01.24	Bahia - Barcelona de Ilhéus	2:0 ✺
27.01.24	Jacobina - Barcelona de Ilhéus	1:0 ✺
24.01.24	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
20.01.24	Jequié - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
21.01.23	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Itabuna	0:1

Itabuna - Barcelona de Ilhéus: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide