Match Info

Baiano - Round 9

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Waldomiro Borges Stadium (Jequié)


	Jequié		Barcelona de Ilhéus

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.3	4.05
	1.75	3.43	4.36	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4.2
	1.71	3.32	4.65
	1.6	3.5	5.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.6)	3.33 ↓ (3.5)	4.45 ↓ (5.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jequié
52.5%

Draw
27.2%

Barcelona de Ilhéus
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

25.7%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

24.6%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jequié has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Barcelona de Ilhéus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jequié than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jequié, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona de Ilhéus than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Jequié - Barcelona de Ilhéus Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Fabio (G) 14. Caique Baiano 2. Carlos Santos 16. Gabriel Carioca 8. Jo 10. Luiz Fernando 9. Recife T. 15. Sergio Baiano 5. Walfrido 3. William Mineiro (C) 25. Ze Gatinha	1. Pedro Antonio (G) 4. Bremer 87. Carlos Richard 6. Elivelton 73. Gianlucas 5. Guimaraes 2. Jeferson Neves 9. Joao Gabriel 11. Kaique 88. Rhuan 3. Vital (C)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Gianlucas ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', 🟨,
64', 🟨,
67', 🟨,
68', 🟨,
79', 🟨,
88', 1 - 1, Recife T. ⚽,
89', 🟨,
89', Rhuan 🟥,
90+3', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 9 in the zone Relegation ~ Baiano 2).

Jequié is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Barcelona has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Jequié may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Jequié is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Jequié won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Jequié won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Jequié
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
11.02.26	Galícia - Jequié	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Jequié - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
04.02.26	Jacuipense - Jequié	0:2 ✺
29.01.26	Bahia de Feira - Jequié	1:2 ✺
22.01.26	Jequié - Atlético de Alagoinhas	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 LTWWW
- Barcelona de Ilhéus
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
19.02.26	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Juazeirense	0:0 ✺
11.02.26	Bahia de Feira - Barcelona de Ilhéus	6:1 ✺
01.02.26	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Vitória Salvador	0:2 ✺
28.01.26	Porto SC - Barcelona de Ilhéus	1:1 ✺
20.01.26	Bahia - Barcelona de Ilhéus	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
29.06.25	Jequié - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0
18.05.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jequié	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
15.01.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jequié	0:0
20.01.24	Jequié - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:2

Jequié - Barcelona de Ilhéus: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide