Match Info

BRAZIL: BAIANO - ROUND 6

Date: 7 February 2024, Wednesday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)


	Bahia		Itabuna

	1	X	2
	1.19	5.75	11.5
	1.2	6	13
	1.18	5.2	9
	1.19	5.7	12.36
	1.25	5	9.5
	1.17	6.05	12.6
	1.19	5.6	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.34)	5.61 ↑ (4.5)	11.42 ↑ (7.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
75.9%

Draw
16.2%

Itabuna
7.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

20.1%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.9%

19.1%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bahia's performance.

Itabuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabuna than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Bahia - Itabuna Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Adriel (G) 7. Ademir 19. Caio Alexandre 40. Cicinho 9. Everaldo (C) 3. Gabriel Xavier 6. Jean Lucas 21. Rafael Ratao 66. Ryan Carlos 15. Victor Cuesta 20. Yago Felipe	1. Jorge (G) 29. Carlinhos 31. Diego Augusto 8. Gabriel Pereira 20. Guilherme Ivo 10. Jussimar 16. Maikon 11. Reinaldo 9. Romario 14. Vinicius Tsumita 3. Vital
Substitutes
11. Biel 8. Cauly 33. David Duarte 10. Everton Ribeiro 2. Gilberto 4. Kanu 46. Luciano Juba 22. Marcos Felipe (G) 44. Marcos Victor 80. Roger Gabriel 55. Sidney 16. Thaciano	6. Caetano 27. Eliomar 18. Guilla 25. Handrey 23. Heleno W. 13. Italo 5. Joadson 2. Joao Neto 21. Manoel 22. Patyego (G) 7. Silvano 19. Wallace

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 8).

Bahia in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Itabuna is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Bahia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Bahia is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Bahia to win the game is with odds 1.37.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Bahia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Bahia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.02.24	Bahia - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
31.01.24	Bahia - Barcelona de Ilhéus	2:0 ✺
27.01.24	Bahia de Feira - Bahia	0:2 ✺
24.01.24	Bahia - Jacobina	5:0 ✺
21.01.24	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Bahia	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWWT
- Itabuna EC
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
01.02.24	Juazeirense - Itabuna	1:1 ✺
29.01.24	Itabuna - Jacuipense	3:1 ✺
23.01.24	Itabuna - Bahia de Feira	1:1 ✺
18.01.24	Jacobina - Itabuna	1:1 ✺
14.01.24	Itabuna - Atlético de Alagoinhas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
18.03.23	Bahia - Itabuna	4:1
11.03.23	Itabuna - Bahia	1:0
26.02.23	Itabuna - Bahia	4:0

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