Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 7

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Yamaha Stadium (Iwata)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Júbilo Iwata		Omiya Ardija

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.85	3.3	2.15
	2.88	3.4	2.12	Watch
	2.93	3.75	2.11
	2.92	3.88	2.13	Watch
	2.8	3.6	2.05
	2.88	3.68	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.8)	3.6 ↓ (3.96)	2.11 ↓ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Júbilo Iwata
31.6%

Draw
25.2%

Omiya Ardija
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

23.5%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

22.9%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

The chances for Omiya Ardija have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Júbilo Iwata - Omiya Ardija Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kawashima E. (G) 50. Uemura H. 30. Yamazaki K. 52. Van den Bergh J. 22. Ueebisu K. 39. Sumi K. 6. Kaneko D. 18. Inoue S. 33. Kawai T. 9. Watanabe R. 16. Gustavo Silva	24. Glover T. (G) 22. Motegi R. 5. Gabriel 88. Nishio R. 3. Kato H. 16. Kato G. 7. Kojima M. 11. Caprini 45. Yamamoto O. 14. Izumi T. 20. Hidaka H.
Substitutes
13. Abe K. (G) 14. Arjvirai P. 77. Fujiwara K. 2. Kawasaki I. 66. Masuda S. 11. Matheus Peixoto 3. Morioka R. 27. Sato R. 36. Yoshimura R.	17. Kanda T. 1. Kasahara T. (G) 27. Matsui T. 34. Murakami Y. 15. Nakayama K. 37. Sekiguchi K. 23. Sugimoto K. 90. Sunday O. 33. Wada T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
28', 0 - 1, Yamamoto O. ⚽, Kato H. (A),
34', Kato G. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
42', 0 - 2, Izumi T. (Penalty Awarded),
43', Inoue S. ↓, Fujiwara K. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Watanabe R. ↓, Matheus Peixoto ↑,
46', Kawai T. ↓, Kawasaki I. ↑,
59', 1 - 2, Gustavo Silva ⚽, Matheus Peixoto (A),
61', 1 - 3, Izumi T. ⚽, Yamamoto O. (A),
66', Motegi R. ↓, Sekiguchi K. ↑,
66', Hidaka H. ↓, Sugimoto K. ↑,
75', Uemura H. ↓, Sato R. ↑,
81', Kato H. ↓, Wada T. ↑,
82', Gabriel ↓, Murakami Y. ↑,
83', Ueebisu K. ↓, Masuda S. ↑,
88', Gustavo Silva 🟨,
90+4', Caprini 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 4, Yamamoto O. ⚽, Sugimoto K. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Iwata won 2.

Iwata has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Omiya has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Omiya could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Iwata won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:35. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Iwata won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.9:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Júbilo Iwata - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.3%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J2 J3 League
14.03.26	Júbilo Iwata - Consadole Sapporo	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Fujieda MYFC - Júbilo Iwata	2:1 penalties ✺
28.02.26	Júbilo Iwata - Fukushima United	1:0 penalties ✺
21.02.26	Júbilo Iwata - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Gifu - Júbilo Iwata	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLWLL
- RB Omiya Ardija
Japan J2 J3 League
14.03.26	Omiya Ardija - Fujieda MYFC	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Iwaki - Omiya Ardija	2:1 penalties ✺
28.02.26	Nagano Parceiro - Omiya Ardija	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Omiya Ardija - Fukushima United	6:0 ✺
14.02.26	Omiya Ardija - Consadole Sapporo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
27.09.25	Júbilo Iwata - Omiya Ardija	3:4
31.05.25	Omiya Ardija - Júbilo Iwata	2:2
09.09.23	Júbilo Iwata - Omiya Ardija	3:2
11.03.23	Omiya Ardija - Júbilo Iwata	1:0
30.10.21	Omiya Ardija - Júbilo Iwata	1:2
21.04.21	Júbilo Iwata - Omiya Ardija	3:2
06.12.20	Júbilo Iwata - Omiya Ardija	2:0

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