Match Info
J1 League - Round 5Date: 2 September 2026, WednesdayLocation: Fukuda Denshi Arena (Chiba)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Austria | Laola1 |
 Germany | Laola1 |
 Usa | SportsEngine Play |
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JEF United Chiba |
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Fagiano Okayama |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
- The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
JEF United Chiba
24.5% | Draw
27.6% | Fagiano Okayama
47.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
JEF United Chiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that JEF United Chiba's form might have worsened.Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fagiano Okayama's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for JEF United Chiba than the current prediction. (+6.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for JEF United Chiba, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-6.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fagiano Okayama, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. JEF United will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Okayama will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Okayama: 68.4% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Okayama (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
19.  Suarez J. (G)
22.  Iida T.
66.  Hall D.
28. Kawano T. (C)
7. Tanaka K.
55. Kida H.
25.  Matheus Indio
8. Tsukui T.
29. Yamura K.
20. Ishikawa D.
99. Erison
| 1.  Moser L. (G)
44. Mori S.
48. Tatsuta Y. (C)
6. Omori H.
26. Motoyama H.
41. Miyamoto E.
80. Oberdan
88. Yamane T.
20. Kawano K.
10.  Na Sang-Ho
9. Leo Gaucho
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| Substitutes |
39. Ishio R.
5. Kobayashi Y.
30. Matsumura T.
18. Sugiyama N.
23. Suzuki R. (G)
4. Taguchi T.
14. Tsubaki N.
41. Yasui T.
11. Yonekura K.
| 79. Browne N.
8. Esaka A.
24. Fujita I.
33. Kamiya Yuta
77. Kawanami G. (G)
99. Lucao
51. Shirai K.
5. Shu I.
18. Tagami D.
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| Coaches |
Kobayashi Y.
| Kiyama T.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 31', 0 - 1, Leo Gaucho ⚽, Motoyama H. (A),
- 36', Kida H. ↓, Taguchi T. ↑,
- 41', 1 - 1, Tanaka K. ⚽, Taguchi T. (A),
- 45', Tsukui T. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Esaka A. ↑,
- 64', Leo Gaucho ↓, Lucao ↑,
- 64', Kawano K. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
- 70', Tsukui T. ↓, Tsubaki N. ↑,
- 70', Yamura K. ↓, Yonekura K. ↑,
- 70', Erison ↓, Matsumura T. ↑,
- 77', Yonekura K. 🟨,
- 81', Motoyama H. ↓, Shirai K. ↑,
- 84', Tanaka K. ↓, Yasui T. ↑,
- 87', Yamane T. ↓, Browne N. ↑,
- 90+3', Miyamoto E. 🟨,
- 90+4', 1 - 2, Kamiya Yuta ⚽, Lucao (A),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, JEF United won 2.Recent form of JEF United has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).Okayama's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2). In this match, Okayama is the team to beat.There will not play in JEF United: Ueda Y.
(Knee Injury)There will not play in Okayama: Kimura T.
(Foot Injury)
Ogura K.
(Knee Injury)In the last 20 head-to-head matches, JEF United won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:19. (average 1.6:1).Including home matches between the teams, JEF United won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).
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Outrights of Japan J1 League for now
Okayama: 2.28% Chiba: 0.53%
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 13 | Okayama | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
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| 20 | Chiba | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:13 | -11 | 0 |
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Japan J2 League | | | 10.08.24 | Fagiano Okayama - JEF United Chiba | 0:0 | | 01.06.24 | JEF United Chiba - Fagiano Okayama | 2:1 | | 01.10.23 | Fagiano Okayama - JEF United Chiba | 0:5 | | 25.03.23 | JEF United Chiba - Fagiano Okayama | 1:1 | | 30.07.22 | Fagiano Okayama - JEF United Chiba | 1:1 | | 08.05.22 | JEF United Chiba - Fagiano Okayama | 1:0 | | 04.12.21 | Fagiano Okayama - JEF United Chiba | 1:3 |
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✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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