Match Info

POLAND: III LIGA - GROUP I - ROUND 29

Date: 21 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Bialystok)


	Jagiellonia II Białystok		Sokół Ostróda

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.1	4.5
	1.57	4.09	4.28
	1.57	4.2	4.75	Watch
	1.65	3.9	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.55)	4.07 ↑ (4)	4.38 ↓ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia II Białystok
57.2%

Draw
22.2%

Sokół Ostróda
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

22.7%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

15.5%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia II Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Sokół Ostróda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia II Białystok than the current prediction. (-17.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jagiellonia II Białystok that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sokół Ostróda than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sokół Ostróda could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 14).

Jagiellonia II is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Ostróda has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Ostróda could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Jagiellonia II is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Jagiellonia II won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Jagiellonia II won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia II Białystok
Polish Division 3 - Group I
14.05.23	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	1:1 ✺
10.05.23	Concordia Elbląg - Jagiellonia II Białystok	1:0 ✺
06.05.23	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Pelikan Łowicz	2:2 ✺
29.04.23	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:1 ✺
22.04.23	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Błonianka Błonie	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLTLL
- Sokół Ostróda
Polish Division 3 - Group I
13.05.23	Sokół Ostróda - Legionovia Legionowo	1:1 ✺
06.05.23	Unia Skierniewice - Sokół Ostróda	2:0 ✺
29.04.23	Sokół Ostróda - ŁKS Łódź II	0:2 ✺
23.04.23	Concordia Elbląg - Sokół Ostróda	2:0 ✺
15.04.23	Sokół Ostróda - Olimpia Zambrów	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
15.10.22	Sokół Ostróda - Jagiellonia II Białystok	3:2
11.09.16	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Sokół Ostróda	1:1

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