Match Info

Asian Cup Women - Play Offs - Final

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Accor Stadium (Sydney) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	06:00	Disney+
Australia	20:00	Channel 10
Germany	10:00	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Peru	04:00	Disney+
Uruguay	06:00	Disney+
Venezuela	05:00	Disney+


	Japan W		Australia W

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.44	4.2	5.25
	1.39	4.25	6.4
	1.43	4.79	6.73
	1.45	4.54	6.28	Watch
	1.4	4	6
	1.38	4.4	6.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.64)	4.36 ↑ (3.5)	6.22 ↑ (4.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan W
64.4%

Draw
20.9%

Australia W
14.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.3%

25.4%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

23.8%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Japan W's performance.

Australia W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Australia W might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Japan W than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Japan W that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Australia W than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Japan W - Australia W Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Japan will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yamashita A. (G) Manchester City 5. Takahashi H. Urawa 6. Koga T. Tottenham 4. Kumagai S. London City Lionesses 13. Kitagawa H. Everton 14. Hasegawa Y. (C) Manchester City 10. Nagano F. Liverpool 7. Miyazawa H. Manchester United 17. Hamano M. Tottenham 9. Ueki R. West Ham 15. Fujino A. Manchester City	1. Arnold M. (G) Portland Thorns FC 21. Carpenter E. Chelsea 3. Heatley W. AS Roma 7. Catley S. Arsenal 8. Torpey K. Newcastle Utd 23. Cooney-Cross K. Arsenal 14. Kennedy A. London City Lionesses 19. Gorry K. West Ham 11. Fowler M. Manchester City 20. Kerr S. (C) Chelsea 9. Foord C. Arsenal
Substitutes
25. Chiba R. Eintracht Frankfurt 18. Hayashi H. Everton 26. Hijikata M. Aston Villa 12. Hirao C. (G) Granada CF 20. Matsukubo M. North Carolina Courage 3. Minami M. Brighton 21. Moriya M. Utah Royals 24. Narumiya Y. Inac Kobe Leonesa 23. Okuma A. (G) 8. Seike K. Brighton 2. Shimizu R. Liverpool 11. Tanaka M. Utah Royals 19. Tanikawa M. Bayern Munich 16. Yamamoto Y. Denver Summit	18. Aquino M. (G) DC Power 13. Chidiac A. Como 22. Heyman M. Canberra 4. Hunt C. Tottenham 15. Johnson K. Calgary Wild FC 12. Lincoln C. (G) Brisbane Roar 25. McNamara H. Melbourne City 2. Nevin C. Malmo FF 5. Rankin J. Hoffenheim 16. Raso H. Eintracht Frankfurt 24. Rule C. 17. Sayer A. Malmo FF 26. Siemsen R. Rosengard 10. van Egmond E. Leicester 6. Wheeler C. Everton

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Hamano M. ⚽, Hasegawa Y. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Ueki R. ↓, Matsukubo M. ↑,
64', Gorry K. ↓, Raso H. ↑,
76', Hamano M. ↓, Chiba R. ↑,
82', Hasegawa Y. ↓, Minami M. ↑,
83', Kitagawa H. ↓, Moriya M. ↑,
83', Fowler M. ↓, van Egmond E. ↑,
83', Cooney-Cross K. ↓, Wheeler C. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Japan won 3.

Each of the two teams have built a series of wins lately.

Japan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Japan is the team to beat.

We predict that Japan will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Japan won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan W
Asian Cup Women
18.03.26	South Korea W - Japan W	1:4 ✺
15.03.26	Japan W - Philippines W	7:0 ✺
10.03.26	Japan W - Vietnam W	4:0 ✺
07.03.26	India W - Japan W	0:11 ✺
04.03.26	Japan W - Chinese Taipei W	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWWW
- Australia W
Asian Cup Women
17.03.26	China W - Australia W	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Australia W - North Korea W	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Australia W - South Korea W	3:3 ✺
05.03.26	Iran W - Australia W	0:4 ✺
01.03.26	Australia W - Philippines W	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

SheBelieves Cup Women
20.02.25	Japan W - Australia W	4:0
Friendly International Women
14.07.21	Japan W - Australia W	1:0
Tournament of Nations Women
02.08.18	Australia W - Japan W	2:0
Asian Cup Women
20.04.18	Japan W - Australia W	1:0
13.04.18	Japan W - Australia W	1:1
Friendly International Women
30.07.17	Japan W - Australia W	2:4
Olympic Games - Football Women
29.02.16	Australia W - Japan W	3:1

Japan W - Australia W