Match Info

Prva NL - Round 21

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion ŠRC Zaprešić (Zaprešić)


	Jarun Zagreb		Croatia Zmijavci

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.9	2.8
	2.35	2.87	2.87
	2.38	2.92	2.92
	2.45	2.82	2.97
	2.41	3.01	2.94	Watch
	2.4	2.7	2.9
	2.43	2.83	2.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.05)	2.86 ↓ (2.91)	2.91 ↓ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jarun Zagreb
37.6%

Draw
31.5%

Croatia Zmijavci
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

30.7%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

31.3%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jarun Zagreb has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jarun Zagreb's form might have worsened.

Croatia Zmijavci has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Croatia Zmijavci's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jarun Zagreb than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jarun Zagreb, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Croatia Zmijavci than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Croatia Zmijavci, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Jarun Zagreb - Croatia Zmijavci Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
72. Krizanovic I. (G) 2. Grdenic T. 19. Jug P. 10. Luetic K. 22. Maloca M. 30. Mamic I. 20. Ocvirek N. 5. Orlic B. 26. Petkovic F. 34. Reyvandi A. 27. Vukmanovic V.	1. Dizdar J. (G) 19. Babic D. 6. Bradaric L. 20. Condric D. 98. Gudelj T. 15. Iyendjock J. 22. Jukic-Peladic T. 23. Krstanovic I. 10. Majic J. 5. Nazor K. 2. Pavlek D.
Substitutes
1. Bosancic I. (G) 14. Buzic M. 11. Culjak F. 15. Damjanovic I. 25. Hodak D. 9. Jelic G. 23. Ljubic J. 17. Peros R. 4. Sostar F.	24. Cotic R. 18. Gadze G. 12. Guljelmovic I. 17. Krolo I. 8. Kukoc M. . Perisic J. 25. Radujkovic N. 9. Suto M. 21. Zuzul A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 🟨,
37', 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', 2 - 0, ⚽,
63', 3 - 0, ⚽,
83', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Druga NL and 11 in the zone Prva NL (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jarun won 1.

Jarun has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Croatia Zmijavci is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Jarun could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Jarun won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:15. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Jarun won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:8. (average 2.2:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Croatia Zmijavci	7	4	1	2	11:6	5	13

Last Results with these Odds

Croatia Zmijavci - the odds 3.49 are the expected chance of winning is 25.66%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jarun Zagreb
Croatian Prva NL
28.02.26	Jarun Zagreb - Orijent	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Cibalia - Jarun Zagreb	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Jarun Zagreb - Sesvete	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
31.01.26	Jarun Zagreb - Radnik Križevci	3:1 ✺
28.01.26	Dubrava - Jarun Zagreb	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLLWT
- Croatia Zmijavci
Croatian Prva NL
01.03.26	Croatia Zmijavci - Rudeš	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Orijent - Croatia Zmijavci	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Croatia Zmijavci - Hrvace	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
24.01.26	Široki Brijeg - Croatia Zmijavci	0:3 ✺
17.01.26	Posušje - Croatia Zmijavci	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Croatian Prva NL
12.10.25	Croatia Zmijavci - Jarun Zagreb	2:2
04.05.25	Croatia Zmijavci - Jarun Zagreb	0:1
22.02.25	Jarun Zagreb - Croatia Zmijavci	1:1
29.09.24	Croatia Zmijavci - Jarun Zagreb	1:0
25.05.24	Jarun Zagreb - Croatia Zmijavci	1:1
03.12.23	Croatia Zmijavci - Jarun Zagreb	1:0
16.09.23	Jarun Zagreb - Croatia Zmijavci	5:2

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