Match Info

Serie D - Round 8

Date: 8 June 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Jequié		Penedense

	1	X	2
	1.34	4.33	7.75
	1.48	3.75	6.1
	1.49	4.12	5.7	Watch
	1.43	3.82	7.25
	1.48	3.75	6.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.39)	3.95 ↓ (4.01)	6.58 ↓ (7.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jequié
63.1%

Draw
23%

Penedense
13.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

65.4%

22.7%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.8%

20.4%

10.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jequié has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Penedense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jequié than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jequié, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (-3%)

Jequié - Penedense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 8).

Jequié is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Penedense has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Penedense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Jequié is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Jequié won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Jequié
Brazilian Serie D
01.06.25	Penedense - Jequié	2:4 ✺
25.05.25	Jequié - Lagarto	3:1 ✺
18.05.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jequié	0:0 ✺
11.05.25	Jequié - Juazeirense	2:3 ✺
04.05.25	Jequié - União Carmolandense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWTLW
- SC Penedense
Brazilian Serie D
01.06.25	Penedense - Jequié	2:4 ✺
24.05.25	Juazeirense - Penedense	1:0 ✺
18.05.25	Penedense - Sergipe	0:1 ✺
10.05.25	Penedense - Lagarto	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
01.06.25	Penedense - Jequié	2:4

Jequié - Penedense