Match Info

Serie D - Round 6

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Adauto Moraes (Juazeiro)


	Juazeirense		Penedense

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.1	4
	1.83	3.15	4.2
	1.84	2.94	4.21
	1.86	3.13	4.35	Watch
	1.83	3.04	4.49
	1.83	3.15	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.18)	3.09 ↓ (3.15)	4.24 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juazeirense
49.3%

Draw
29.3%

Penedense
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

28.6%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

27.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juazeirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Juazeirense's performance.

Penedense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Penedense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juazeirense than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Juazeirense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Penedense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Juazeirense - Penedense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Diney ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 8).

Juazeirense has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Penedense has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Juazeirense could have a small edge in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Juazeirense - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 41.34%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Juazeirense
Brazilian Serie D
18.05.25	Juazeirense - União Carmolandense	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Jequié - Juazeirense	2:3 ✺
04.05.25	Juazeirense - Barcelona de Ilhéus	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Sergipe - Juazeirense	0:0 ✺
20.04.25	Juazeirense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWTTL
- SC Penedense
Brazilian Serie D
18.05.25	Penedense - Sergipe	0:1 ✺
10.05.25	Penedense - Lagarto	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	União Carmolandense - Penedense	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Penedense - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLLTT

Juazeirense - Penedense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide