Match Info
Alagoano - Round 7Date: 7 February 2026, SaturdayLocation: Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca (Arapiraca)
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense |
|
Penedense |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.32 |
4.15 |
9 |
|
 |
1.24 |
5.13 |
12.11 |
|
 |
1.3 |
4.44 |
10.11 |
 Watch |
 |
1.25 |
4.5 |
12 |
|
 |
1.3 |
4.72 |
11.5 |
|
 |
1.25 |
4.5 |
11 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.28 ↓
(1.42) |
4.57 ↑
(3.5) |
10.95 ↑
(5.8) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
- The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
71.6% | Draw
20% | Penedense
8.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense's performance.Penedense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Penedense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense than the current prediction. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (+5%)Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
|---|
12.  Cris (G)
| |
9. Alex Bruno
| |
8. Allef
| |
16. Arthurzinho
| |
4. Cristian Lucca (C)
| |
5. Fabio Aguiar
| |
29. Gustavo Ramos
| |
27. Jailson
| |
25. Jeferson Lopes
| |
22. Paulinho
| |
26. Sammuel
| |
| Substitutes |
|---|
1. Dida (G)
| |
18. Filipe Ramon
| |
14. Flavio Nunes
| |
10. Higor Leite
| |
33. Junior Vicosa
| |
7. Keliton
| |
20. Leo Bahia
| |
2. Leo Principe
| |
21. Lima V.
| |
15. Roni Lobo
| |
28. Vini Locatelli
| |
11. Wandson
| |
Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 3', 1 - 0, Tiago Mumu (Own goal),
- 31', 🟨,
- 35', 2 - 0, Alex Bruno ⚽,
- 42', Allef 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Dinda ↓, Baranhas ↑,
- 46', Tiago Mumu ↓, Everson ↑,
- 57', Paulinho ↓, Leo Principe ↑,
- 57', Sammuel ↓, Keliton ↑,
- 57', Alex Bruno ↓, Junior Vicosa ↑,
- 68', Gustavo Ramos ↓, Wandson ↑,
- 79', Jeferson Lopes ↓, Flavio Nunes ↑,
- 90+3', 🟨,
Preview
One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Alagoano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6). ASA is Qualified for Alagoano (Play Offs Semi~finals)In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ASA won 2.ASA has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).Penedense has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0). In this match, ASA is the undisputed favorite.We predict that ASA will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.In the last 6 head-to-head matches, ASA won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 0.8:0.3).Including home matches between the teams, ASA won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Brazilian Serie D | | | 13.07.25 | Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense | 0:1 | | 03.05.25 | Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense | 1:0 | | Club Friendly | | | 05.04.25 | Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense | 0:0 | | Brazilian Copa Alagoas | | | 22.01.25 | Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense | 0:0 | | Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano | | | 19.01.25 | Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense | 1:1 | | 18.02.24 | Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense | 1:2 |
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