Match Info

I Lyga - Round 11

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Canada	DAZN Canada
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Japan	DAZN Japan
Lithuania	LNK
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Portugal	DAZN / App
Spain	DAZN Espana
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	DAZN USA


	Jonava		Babrungas Plungė

	1	X	2
	4.45	3.6	1.62
	4.41	3.6	1.63
	3.97	3.25	1.88	Watch
	3.6	3.2	1.85
	4.84	3.54	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.25 ↑ (3.65)	3.44 ↑ (3.43)	1.72 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jonava
21.3%

Draw
26.3%

Babrungas Plungė
52.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

26.5%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

26.6%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jonava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Babrungas Plungė has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jonava than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Babrungas Plungė than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Jonava - Babrungas Plungė Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Borja P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
79', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ TOPLYGA (Promotion: )).

Jonava has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Babrungas is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Babrungas is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jonava won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Jonava won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43:11	32	61
11	Jonava	25	7	6	12	28:33	-5	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jonava
Lithuanian Division 2
16.05.26	Tauras Tauragė - Jonava	2:0 ✺
08.05.26	Jonava - Neptūnas	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Dainava Alytus - Jonava	3:0 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
29.04.26	Jonava - FA Šiauliai	0:4 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
25.04.26	Jonava - Transinvest 2	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLLW
- Babrungas Plungė
Lithuanian Division 2
15.05.26	Babrungas Plungė - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	3:0 ✺
09.05.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Babrungas Plungė	1:1 ✺
01.05.26	Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius	4:0 ✺
24.04.26	Babrungas Plungė - Garliava	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Tauras Tauragė - Babrungas Plungė	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
17.08.25	Babrungas Plungė - Jonava	1:2
18.04.25	Jonava - Babrungas Plungė	1:2
13.10.23	Babrungas Plungė - Jonava	2:1
27.05.23	Jonava - Babrungas Plungė	3:2
06.07.21	Babrungas Plungė - Jonava	1:2

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