Match Info

I Lyga - Round 14

Date: 21 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Jonavos centrinis stadionas (Jonava)


	Jonava		Žalgiris Vilnius 2

	1	X	2
	3.01	3.4	2.2
				Watch
	2.94	3.68	2.21	Watch
	2.5	3.6	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (3.57)	3.56 ↓ (4)	2.26 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jonava
32.9%

Draw
26.1%

Žalgiris Vilnius 2
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

22.7%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

23.1%

50.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jonava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jonava's performance.

Žalgiris Vilnius 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Žalgiris Vilnius 2 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jonava than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jonava that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žalgiris Vilnius 2 than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Žalgiris Vilnius 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jonava - Žalgiris Vilnius 2 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Žalgiris 2 (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Jonava (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Žalgiris 2 (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Jonava (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Žalgiris 2 (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sivickas V. (G) 12. Cerkauskas L. 17. Dedura M. 92. Dubickas A. 99. Ganusauskas M. 19. Kabosius A. 96. Neverdauskas M. 21. Nikonovas G. 6. Olsauskas K. 9. Raginis A. 23. Rocys A. (C)	98. Jakubovskis D. (G) 3. Aleksa D. 89. Alfieri A. 24. Burba M. 9. Jarusevicius G. 33. Klimavicius N. 16. Kontautas K. 44. Matyzonok P. 28. Simonavicius U. 83. Soja A. 70. Valukonis M. (C)
Substitutes
8. Beniusis R. 35. Jakimavicius V. (G) 16. Matuzas M. (G) 7. Mironcikas M. 5. Rackus A. 70. Rusnius R. 2. Sungaila V.	66. Kurec D. 35. Mikelaitis G. 1. Ruginis A. 40. Zederstreimas G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, ⚽,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', 🟨,
81', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jonava won 3.

Jonava has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Žalgiris 2 is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Jonava may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Jonava won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 2.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Jonava won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jonava
Lithuanian Division 2
17.06.25	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Jonava	0:1 ✺
13.06.25	Jonava - Minija Kretinga	0:0 ✺
30.05.25	Nevėžis - Jonava	1:0 ✺
24.05.25	Jonava - FA Šiauliai B	3:1 ✺
17.05.25	Tauras Tauragė - Jonava	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTLWL
- Žalgiris Vilnius 2
Lithuanian Division 2
17.06.25	Minija Kretinga - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	1:4 ✺
14.06.25	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - FA Šiauliai B	2:1 ✺
02.06.25	Panevėžys 2 - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	0:3 ✺
26.05.25	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Hegelmann Litauen 2	4:3 ✺
16.05.25	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
31.10.23	Jonava - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	0:4
01.05.23	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Jonava	1:3
02.10.21	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Jonava	1:2
19.06.21	Jonava - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	3:1
08.08.20	Jonava - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	3:3
16.09.19	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Jonava	3:2
20.05.19	Jonava - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	6:0

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