Match Info

III Liga - Group IV - Round 9

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Miejski Stadion Sportowy (Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski)


	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski		Chełmianka Chełm

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.20	2.55
	2.42	3.15	2.55
	2.45	3.04	2.58
	2.49	3.2	2.64	Watch
	2.4	2.95	2.5
	2.41	3.18	2.55	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.4)	3.15 ↓ (3.38)	2.57 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski
36.8%

Draw
28.4%

Chełmianka Chełm
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

26.2%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

26%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Chełmianka Chełm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chełmianka Chełm than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Chełmianka Chełm Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 2nd in the Promotion ~ Division 2 (Promotion ~ Playoffs and 1st in the Promotion ~ Division 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ostrowiec won 1.

Ostrowiec has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Chełmianka is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Ostrowiec has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:24 (averaging 1.2:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ostrowiec against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 16:10 goals (averaging 1.8:1.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18:5	13	27
4	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	11	5	5	1	16:9	7	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
12.09.26	Wisła II Kraków - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Naprzód Jędrzejów	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	Moravia Morawica - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	0:4 ✺
23.08.26	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	1:0 ✺
19.08.26	Wiślanie Skawina - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTWWT
- Chełmianka Chełm
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
12.09.26	Chełmianka Chełm - Siarka Tarnobrzeg	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Wisła II Kraków - Chełmianka Chełm	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Chełmianka Chełm - Wieczysta II	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Naprzód Jędrzejów - Chełmianka Chełm	0:2 ✺
19.08.26	Chełmianka Chełm - Wisłoka Dębica	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group IV
13.05.26	Chełmianka Chełm - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	1:0
25.10.25	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Chełmianka Chełm	1:3
26.04.25	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Chełmianka Chełm	3:0
28.09.24	Chełmianka Chełm - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	4:1
24.11.23	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Chełmianka Chełm	0:3
05.08.23	Chełmianka Chełm - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	2:1
17.06.23	Chełmianka Chełm - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	1:0

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