Match Info

First League - Round 5

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday


	Kaspiy Aktau 2		Shakhter Karagandy

	1	X	2
	16.93	4.44	1.24	Watch
	18	6.1	1.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	17.47 ↑ (7.27)	5.27 ↓ (5.58)	1.18 ↓ (1.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kaspiy Aktau 2
5.2%

Draw
17.3%

Shakhter Karagandy
77.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.6%

16.4%

71%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kaspiy Aktau 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kaspiy Aktau 2's form might have worsened.

Shakhter Karagandy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shakhter Karagandy's recent form is better than expected.

Kaspiy Aktau 2 - Shakhter Karagandy Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
57', 0 - 1, Nurmugamet R. ⚽, Vasilchenko D. (A),
71', 0 - 2, Asylbaev R. ⚽, Zaynetdinov D. (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Shakhter Karagandy is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Kaspiy 2 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Shakhter Karagandy is the clear favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy ✔	23	20	2	1	64:8	56	62
9	Kaspij Aktau 2	23	7	4	12	29:41	-12	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shakhter Karagandy
Kazakh First League
01.05.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Tobol 2	3:0 ✺
23.04.26	Arys - Shakhter Karagandy	0:6 ✺
17.04.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Batyr Ekibastuz	4:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
09.04.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Okzhetpes	2:3 ✺
Kazakh First League
03.04.26	Kairat 2 - Shakhter Karagandy	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWWLT

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