Match Info

Super Lig - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu (Izmit)

Referee: Kayatepe A. D. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect


	Kocaelispor		Fatih Karagümrükspor

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2	3.4	3.6
	2.24	3.3	3.07	Watch
	2.34	3.35	3.23
	2.49	3.15	3	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3
	2.5	3.33	3.02	Watch
	1.98	3.3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (1.98)	3.28 ↓ (3.3)	3.23 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kocaelispor
41.9%

Draw
28.8%

Fatih Karagümrükspor
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

28.2%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

27.2%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kocaelispor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kocaelispor's form might have worsened.

Fatih Karagümrükspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kocaelispor than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kocaelispor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fatih Karagümrükspor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.1%	11.1%	27.8%

Kocaelispor - Fatih Karagümrükspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Kocaelispor will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Karagümrük will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kocaelispor: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kocaelispor (votes: 1 - 50%). Karagümrük (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Karagümrük (1.56) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Karagümrük (2.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Kocaelispor (votes: 1 - 20%). Karagümrük (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
83. Oztasdelen S. (G) 22. Oguz A. (C) 2. Dijksteel A. 6. Smolcic H. 21. Haidara M. 20. Susoho M. 14. Show 70. Keles C. 98. Nonge J. 7. Agyei D. 19. Dursun S.	99. Beklevic F. (G) 47. Esgaio R. 4. Biraschi D. (C) 3. Lichnovsky I. 33. Kurukalip C. 5. Kranevitter M. 6. Elmaz B. 70. Serginho 8. Ozcan B. 80. Babicka S. 21. Cukur T.
Substitutes
75. Bingol T. 17. Churlinov D. 3. Cinan M. 35. Degirmenci G. (G) 18. Gedik F. 8. Keita H. 10. Linetty K. 94. Narin E. 99. Rivas R. 23. Yalcin S.	88. Ahmed T. 94. Cinar A. 24. Ersoy B. 98. Evli B. (G) 32. Kadioglu M. 72. Kalayci B. 20. Kalpakli T. 22. Kurucuk F. 23. Larsson S. 10. Verde D.
Coaches
Inan S.	Stanojevic A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Show 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Oguz A. ↓, Rivas R. ↑,
46', Nonge J. ↓, Keita H. ↑,
59', Kranevitter M. ↓, Verde D. ↑,
61', Keles C. ↓, Bingol T. ↑,
69', Serginho ↓, Cinar A. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Cinar A. ⚽, Verde D. (A),
73', Susoho M. ↓, Churlinov D. ↑,
87', Bingol T. 🟨,
88', Show ↓, Narin E. ↑,
90+1', Babicka S. ↓, Kalayci B. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Kocaelispor might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Kocaelispor: Jovanovic A. (Knee Injury) Wieteska M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Karagümrük: Camacho J. (Inactive) Kone (Inactive) Sivri A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Kocaelispor: Balogh B. (Health problems) Petkovic B. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Karagümrük: Verde D. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Kocaelispor won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Kocaelispor won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Kocaelispor	7	4	0	3	8:6	2	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kocaelispor
Turkish Super League
03.05.26	Kasımpaşa - Kocaelispor	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Gençlerbirliği - Kocaelispor	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Kocaelispor - Göztepe	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Galatasaray - Kocaelispor	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Kocaelispor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TLTTT
- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish Super League
03.05.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Gençlerbirliği	1:0 ✺
27.04.26	Beşiktaş - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Eyüpspor	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Konyaspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:0 ✺
05.04.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Çaykur Rizespor	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
14.12.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Kocaelispor	1:1
Turkish First League
16.03.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Kocaelispor	1:1
02.11.24	Kocaelispor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1

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