Match Info

Super Lig - Round 32

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu (Istanbul)

Referee: Kol Y. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX


	Kasımpaşa		Kocaelispor

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.7	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.3
	2.05	3.11	3.75	Watch
	2.18	3.2	3.98
	2.2	3.13	3.59	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.7
	2.18	3.23	3.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.28)	3.14 ↓ (3.17)	3.69 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kasımpaşa
44.3%

Draw
30.1%

Kocaelispor
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

29.8%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

29.7%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kasımpaşa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Kocaelispor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kasımpaşa than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kocaelispor than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	27.3%	0%

Kasımpaşa - Kocaelispor Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Kasımpaşa will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kasımpaşa: 46.4% – 99%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Kasımpaşa (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kasımpaşa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gianniotis A. (G) 2. Winck C. (C) 20. Opoku N. 4. Arous A. 22. Corekci K. 8. Cafu 26. Demirbay K. 71. Kahveci I. C. 34. Diabate F. 12. Ben Ouanes M. 19. Benedyczak A.	83. Oztasdelen S. (G) 22. Oguz A. (C) 2. Dijksteel A. 19. Dursun S. 21. Haidara M. 20. Susoho M. 14. Show 8. Keita H. 70. Keles C. 7. Agyei D. 98. Nonge J.
Substitutes
5. Aydin E. 29. Aydin T. 21. Frimpong G. 77. Gueye P. 6. Gultekin B. 17. Kanatsizkus K. 11. Kol A. 33. Tasdemir E. 23. Tosun C. 25. Yanar A. (G)	75. Bingol T. 16. Ceylan D. 3. Cinan M. 35. Degirmenci G. (G) 18. Gedik F. 10. Linetty K. 97. Ozyar A. 99. Rivas R. 11. Sagat A. 23. Yalcin S.
Coaches
Belozoglu E.	Inan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Benedyczak A. ⚽, Ben Ouanes M. (A),
23', 1 - 1, Agyei D. ⚽, Dursun S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Nonge J. ↓, Bingol T. ↑,
59', Oguz A. 🟨,
63', Oguz A. ↓, Rivas R. ↑,
89', Agyei D. ↓, Gedik F. ↑,
90', Winck C. ↓, Frimpong G. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 11).

Kasımpaşa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kocaelispor's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Kasımpaşa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kasımpaşa is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Kasımpaşa: Baldursson A. F. (Yellow Cards) Hajradinovic H. (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Becao (Red Card)

There will not play in Kocaelispor: Cinan M. (Injury) Jovanovic A. (Knee Injury) Wieteska M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Kasımpaşa: Allevinah J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Kocaelispor: Balogh B. (Inactive) Petkovic B. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Kasımpaşa won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 3.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Kasımpaşa won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Kocaelispor	6	4	0	2	7:4	3	12
8	Kasimpasa	7	2	4	1	8:8	0	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kasımpaşa
Turkish Super League
24.04.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Kasımpaşa	4:0 ✺
19.04.26	Kasımpaşa - Alanyaspor	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Göztepe - Kasımpaşa	3:3 ✺
04.04.26	Kasımpaşa - Kayserispor	2:0 ✺
19.03.26	Beşiktaş - Kasımpaşa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LWTWL
- Kocaelispor
Turkish Super League
26.04.26	Gençlerbirliği - Kocaelispor	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Kocaelispor - Göztepe	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Galatasaray - Kocaelispor	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Kocaelispor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Alanyaspor - Kocaelispor	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
07.12.25	Kocaelispor - Kasımpaşa	0:0
Turkish Cup
28.12.21	Kasımpaşa - Kocaelispor	5:3 ET
01.11.12	Kasımpaşa - Kocaelispor	5:0

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