Match Info

Division 3 - Group 1 - Round 22

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Konnerud		Heming

	1	X	2
	4.50	4.75	1.46
	3.80	4.10	1.60
	3.95	5.72	1.46
	5.1	5.4	1.42	Watch
	3.90	5.65	1.44
	3.86	4.89	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.19 ↓ (5.5)	5.09 ↑ (4.8)	1.5 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Konnerud
21.7%

Draw
17.8%

Heming
60.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16%

18.3%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.4%

17.6%

68.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Konnerud has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Konnerud's performance.

Heming has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Heming might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Konnerud than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Konnerud that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heming than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Heming could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Konnerud - Heming Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
4', 1 - 0, Skistad E. ⚽,
10', 2 - 0, Haldorsen E. ⚽,
16', 2 - 1, Aarstad T. ⚽,
21', 2 - 2, Ferrer U. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 3)
49', 3 - 2, Ahmadzay D. ⚽,
55', 4 - 2, Skistad E. ⚽,
70', 4 - 3, Ferrer U. ⚽,
75', 4 - 4, Sorlie S. ⚽,
80', 5 - 4, Ahmadzay D. ⚽,
90', 5 - 5, Sorlie S. ⚽,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 13th in the Relegation and 2nd).

Konnerud is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Heming is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to Heming for this game.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Heming	22	13	4	5	58:36	22	43
14	Konnerud	22	5	2	15	34:59	-25	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Konnerud IL
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 1
26.09.26	Konnerud - KFUM 2	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Frigg Oslo - Konnerud	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Konnerud - Grei	3:2 ✺
05.09.26	Vålerenga 2 - Konnerud	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Konnerud - Bærum	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLWLT
- IL Heming
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 1
26.09.26	Heming - Ullern	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Grei - Heming	1:4 ✺
12.09.26	Heming - Frigg Oslo	5:1 ✺
04.09.26	Gamle Oslo - Heming	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Heming - Vålerenga 2	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWLW

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