Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 16

Date: 26 January 2025, Sunday


	Lagoa		Fabril do Barreiro

	1	X	2
	1.63	3.3	4.8
	1.68	3.34	5.18
	1.64	3.4	5.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.6)	3.35 ↓ (3.57)	5.04 ↑ (4.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lagoa
54.9%

Draw
27.1%

Fabril do Barreiro
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

25.3%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

17%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lagoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Fabril do Barreiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lagoa than the current prediction. (-17%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lagoa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fabril do Barreiro than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fabril do Barreiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lagoa - Fabril do Barreiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+1', 1 - 0, Duarte P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
85', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lagoa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
19.01.25	Operário - Lagoa	2:1 ✺
11.01.25	Lagoa - Lusitano GC	3:1 ✺
05.01.25	Lagoa - Serpa	0:0 ✺
15.12.24	Moura - Lagoa	2:1 ✺
08.12.24	Lagoa - Amora	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LWTLT
- Fabril do Barreiro
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
19.01.25	Fabril do Barreiro - Estrela da Amadora B	0:0 ✺
12.01.25	Sintrense - Fabril do Barreiro	1:0 ✺
05.01.25	Louletano - Fabril do Barreiro	4:0 ✺
15.12.24	Fabril do Barreiro - Comércio e Indústria	2:2 ✺
08.12.24	Moncarapachense - Fabril do Barreiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
01.09.24	Fabril do Barreiro - Lagoa	2:3

Lagoa - Fabril do Barreiro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide