Match Info

ENGLAND: NPL Premier Division - Round 5

Date: 24 August 2024, Saturday


	Lancaster City		Matlock Town

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.75	4.1
	1.57	4	4.75
	1.57	4.26	4.9
	1.53	4.39	4.83
	1.53	4.05	5.09
	1.57	4	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 (1.55)	4.24 ↑ (4.05)	4.74 ↓ (4.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lancaster City
59.2%

Draw
21.5%

Matlock Town
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

22.5%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

21.6%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lancaster City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Matlock Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matlock Town than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Lancaster City - Matlock Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 1 - 0, Lawson D. ⚽,
86', Coulton L. 🟥,
90+7', 1 - 1, Ravenhill R. ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lancaster won 3.

Lancaster is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Matlock has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Lancaster is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Lancaster won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Lancaster won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
20.08.24	Lancaster City - Warrington Rylands	0:0 ✺
17.08.24	Blyth Spartans - Lancaster City	1:1 ✺
13.08.24	Workington - Lancaster City	1:1 ✺
10.08.24	Lancaster City - Basford United	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Witton Albion - Lancaster City	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TTTWW
- Matlock Town
English NPL Premier Division
20.08.24	Worksop Town - Matlock Town	8:0 ✺
17.08.24	Matlock Town - Hyde United	1:4 ✺
13.08.24	Matlock Town - Whitby Town	0:2 ✺
10.08.24	Prescot Cables - Matlock Town	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.24	Matlock Town - Mansfield Town	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
09.03.24	Matlock Town - Lancaster City	2:1
03.02.24	Lancaster City - Matlock Town	1:0
28.01.23	Lancaster City - Matlock Town	2:1
24.09.22	Matlock Town - Lancaster City	1:0
05.02.22	Matlock Town - Lancaster City	0:1
23.10.21	Lancaster City - Matlock Town	0:2
05.10.19	Lancaster City - Matlock Town	1:0

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