Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 25

Date: 1 January 2026, Thursday


	Workington		Lancaster City

	1	X	2
	3.45	3.4	1.9
	3.36	3.74	1.98	Watch
	3.4	3.5	1.85
	3.53	3.54	1.9
	3.6	3.75	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↑ (3.35)	3.59 ↑ (3.43)	1.89 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Workington
26.3%

Draw
25.4%

Lancaster City
48.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

26.4%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

24.3%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Workington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Lancaster City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Workington than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lancaster City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Workington - Lancaster City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+1', 1 - 0, Swinglehurst S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
81', Carroll B. 🟥,
90+7', 1 - 1, Lawson D. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Workington won 1.

Workington is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Lancaster has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Lancaster is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Workington won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Workington won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Workington	12	6	3	3	23:19	4	21
12	Lancaster	12	5	1	6	16:24	-8	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Workington
English NPL Premier Division
27.12.25	Cleethorpes Town - Workington	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Workington - Stockton Town	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Workington - Bamber Bridge	1:3 ✺
29.11.25	Leek Town - Workington	2:2 ✺
22.11.25	Workington - Warrington Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLTT
- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
26.12.25	Lancaster City - Bamber Bridge	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	United of Manchester - Lancaster City	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Warrington Rylands - Lancaster City	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Lancaster City	1:4 ✺
25.11.25	Lancaster City - Prescot Cables	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
25.08.25	Lancaster City - Workington	2:0
21.12.24	Lancaster City - Workington	1:1
13.08.24	Workington - Lancaster City	1:1
17.02.24	Lancaster City - Workington	1:1
26.09.23	Workington - Lancaster City	2:1
22.04.19	Workington - Lancaster City	0:2
26.12.18	Lancaster City - Workington	0:2

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