Match Info

Primus League - Round 25

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished


	Le Messager de Ngozi		Musongati

	1	X	2
	4.39	3.47	1.75	Watch
	2.88	3.2	2.25
	4.64	3.61	1.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.97 ↑ (2.94)	3.43 ↑ (3.08)	1.9 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Messager de Ngozi
23.5%

Draw
27.3%

Musongati
49.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.9%

29.5%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

28.9%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Messager de Ngozi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Le Messager de Ngozi's form might have worsened.

Musongati has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Musongati's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Messager de Ngozi than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Le Messager de Ngozi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Musongati than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Musongati, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Le Messager de Ngozi - Musongati Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 3).

Le Messager de Ngozi has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Musongati is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Musongati may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Le Messager de Ngozi won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Musongati	29	16	8	5	39:21	18	56
13	Le Messager Ngozi	29	7	9	13	28:33	-5	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Messager de Ngozi
Burundi Premier League
07.03.26	Rukinzo - Le Messager de Ngozi	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Le Messager de Ngozi - Green Farmers	4:0 ✺
22.02.26	Kayanza United - Le Messager de Ngozi	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Le Messager de Ngozi - Garage Express	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Dynamik - Le Messager de Ngozi	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWLTW
- Musongati FC
Burundi Premier League
22.02.26	Rukinzo - Musongati	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Musongati - Green Farmers	3:0 ✺
08.02.26	Kayanza United - Musongati	1:4 ✺
01.02.26	Musongati - Garage Express	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Dynamik - Musongati	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Burundi Premier League
10.10.21	Musongati - Le Messager de Ngozi	2:0
23.12.20	Musongati - Le Messager de Ngozi	0:1
22.03.20	Musongati - Le Messager de Ngozi	1:1

Le Messager de Ngozi - Musongati