Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Georgetown, KY)

Referee: Stevis B. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+, NESN Plus
Venezuela	Disney+


	Lexington		Rhode Island

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.22	3.15	3.05
	2.35	3.2	3.36
	2.29	3.38	2.98	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.1
	2.31	3.25	3.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (1.92)	3.18 ↓ (3.46)	3.11 ↓ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lexington
40.8%

Draw
29.2%

Rhode Island
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

26.6%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

26.1%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lexington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lexington's form might have worsened.

Rhode Island has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lexington, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rhode Island than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Lexington - Rhode Island Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Semmle O. (G) 2. Greene J. 5. Burks K. 4. Ordonez A. 22. Hafferty J. 8. Nick Firmino 16. Ferri B. 6. Molloy A. (C) 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P. 10. Adedokun M.	1. Koke Vegas (C) 15. Nodarse F. 24. Yao K. 32. Diop H. 3. Sanchez A. 4. Bacharach Capdevila H. 12. Holstad C. 17. Kwizera J. 10. Rodriguez A. 8. Leo Afonso 9. Williams J.
Substitutes
40. Addams G. (G) 23. Brown J. 14. Caborn A. 18. Henry-Scott M. 21. Muir M. 19. Scott T. 12. Zengue X.	7. Atkinson D. 29. Castro J. (G) 14. Dorsey L. 11. Fuson N. 22. Scardina N. 77. Shapiro-Thompson A. 5. Stoneman G.
Coaches
Hemmi M.	Smith K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
21', 0 - 1, Sanchez A. ⚽, Rodriguez A. (A),
27', 0 - 2, Kwizera J. ⚽, Williams J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Rodriguez A. ↓, Fuson N. ↑,
63', Burks K. 🟨,
68', 0 - 3, Leo Afonso ⚽, Fuson N. (A),
70', Leo Afonso ↓, Shapiro-Thompson A. ↑,
70', Kwizera J. ↓, Scardina N. ↑,
71', Nick Firmino ↓, Henry-Scott M. ↑,
71', Hafferty J. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
80', Adedokun M. ↓, Scott T. ↑,
85', 1 - 3, Greene J. ⚽,
88', Williams J. ↓, Dorsey L. ↑,
88', Bacharach Capdevila H. ↓, Stoneman G. ↑,
90', Greene J. ↓, Zengue X. ↑,
90+1', Ordonez A. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lexington SC
USL Championship
04.04.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Lexington	1:1 ✺
US Open Cup
01.04.26	Lexington - Louisville City	0:2 ✺
USL Championship
29.03.26	San Antonio - Lexington	2:0 ✺
25.03.26	Lexington - Brooklyn	3:0 ✺
US Open Cup
19.03.26	Lexington - City Union	9:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLLWW
- Rhode Island FC
USL Championship
04.04.26	Rhode Island - Detroit City	0:0 ✺
US Open Cup
01.04.26	Rhode Island - Hartford Athletic	2:0 ✺
USL Championship
28.03.26	Miami - Rhode Island	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Louisville City - Rhode Island	4:2 ✺
US Open Cup
17.03.26	Rhode Island - Faialense	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWLLW

Upcoming Matches