Match Info

Regionalliga Nordost - Round 11

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	MDR Fernsehen
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	Lokomotive Leipzig		Rot-Weiß Erfurt

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.6	2.3
	2.58	3.72	2.3
	2.55	3.8	2.31
	2.5	3.6	2.25
	2.5	3.52	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.45)	3.65 ↓ (3.72)	2.29 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lokomotive Leipzig
35.7%

Draw
24.8%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

24.6%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

24.6%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lokomotive Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Rot-Weiß Erfurt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lokomotive Leipzig than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rot-Weiß Erfurt than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Lokomotive Leipzig - Rot Weiß Erfurt Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Adetula A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 4)
52', 1 - 1, Schwarz T. ⚽,
57', 2 - 1, Ziane D. ⚽,
61', 3 - 1, Ozturk E. ⚽,
71', 3 - 2, Schwarz T. ⚽,
77', 3 - 3, Fehler S. (Penalty Awarded),
90+2', 3 - 4, Forkel D. ⚽,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 9th and 1st in the Promotion ~ 3. Liga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lokomotive Leipzig won 4.

In recent outings, Lokomotive Leipzig has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Rot-Weiß Erfurt shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Rot-Weiß Erfurt could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Rot-Weiß Erfurt has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Lokomotive Leipzig has recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 18:9 (averaging 1.4:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lokomotive Leipzig against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 7:3 goals (averaging 1:0.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Erfurt	11	8	3	0	36:11	25	27
9	Lokomotive Leipzig	11	4	3	4	23:23	0	15

Last Results with these Odds

Rot-Weiß Erfurt - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lokomotive Leipzig
German Regionalliga Nordost
20.09.26	Carl Zeiss Jena - Lokomotive Leipzig	1:2 ✺
16.09.26	Lokomotive Leipzig - Berliner FC Dynamo	2:2
13.09.26	Greifswald - Lokomotive Leipzig	3:3 ✺
25.08.26	Lokomotive Leipzig - Chemnitzer	0:2 ✺
02.08.26	Lokomotive Leipzig - Magdeburg II	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTTLW
- Rot-Weiß Erfurt
German Regionalliga Nordost
19.09.26	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2 ✺
11.09.26	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - RSV Eintracht	5:0 ✺
29.08.26	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Preussen	1:1 ✺
25.08.26	Luckenwalde - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	0:5
15.08.26	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Magdeburg II	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Nordost
04.04.26	Lokomotive Leipzig - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	2:1
05.10.25	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Lokomotive Leipzig	0:2
18.05.25	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Lokomotive Leipzig	2:4
01.12.24	Lokomotive Leipzig - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	0:0
13.04.24	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Lokomotive Leipzig	0:1
29.10.23	Lokomotive Leipzig - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	1:0
11.03.23	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Lokomotive Leipzig	1:0

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