Match Info

Regionalliga Nordost - Round 10

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	MDR Fernsehen
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	Rot-Weiß Erfurt		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	2.18	3.55	2.75
	2.24	3.6	2.79
	2.18	3.63	2.84
	2.19	3.4	2.7
	2.17	3.42	2.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.25)	3.52 ↑ (3.5)	2.78 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rot-Weiß Erfurt
41.5%

Draw
25.8%

Erzgebirge Aue
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

25.8%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

25.2%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rot-Weiß Erfurt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rot-Weiß Erfurt than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Rot Weiß Erfurt - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Hajrulla R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
49', 1 - 1, Maciejewski T. (Penalty Awarded),
89', 2 - 1, Forkel D. ⚽,
90+11', 2 - 2, Kamm W. ⚽,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ 3. Liga and 3rd).

Rot-Weiß Erfurt is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Aue have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Aue may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Rot-Weiß Erfurt holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Rot-Weiß Erfurt has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Rot-Weiß Erfurt against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Erfurt	11	8	3	0	36:11	25	27
6	Aue	11	6	3	2	20:16	4	21

Last Results with these Odds

Rot-Weiß Erfurt - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.13%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Erzgebirge Aue - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.07%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rot-Weiß Erfurt
German Regionalliga Nordost
11.09.26	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - RSV Eintracht	5:0 ✺
29.08.26	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Preussen	1:1 ✺
25.08.26	Luckenwalde - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	0:5
15.08.26	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Magdeburg II	4:1 ✺
02.08.26	Hallescher - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTWWT
- Erzgebirge Aue
German Regionalliga Nordost
16.09.26	Magdeburg II - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2
12.09.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Luckenwalde	2:1 ✺
26.08.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Hertha Berlin II	0:0
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Hoffenheim	0:4 ✺
German Regionalliga Nordost
15.08.26	Chemnitzer - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
16.01.18	Erzgebirge Aue - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	0:1
German 3 Bundesliga
28.02.16	Erzgebirge Aue - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	2:2
12.09.15	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Erzgebirge Aue	0:1

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