Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 3 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Stadio di Cornaredo (Lugano)

Referee: Dickinson D. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport Austria 8
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	Canal+ Live 14
Iceland	Viaplay
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Norway	Viaplay
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 16, M+ Liga de Campeones 1, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport Player, RTS Sport Player, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 17
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+


	Lugano		HJK

	1	X	2
	1.25	6	11
	1.25	5.75	9.5
	1.25	6	11
	1.26	5.9	11.3
	1.28	5.79	9.17	Watch
	1.4	4.2	7
	1.28	6.15	10.6
	1.25	6	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.53)	5.72 ↑ (4.28)	10.07 ↑ (5.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
74.1%

Draw
16.5%

HJK
9.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

21.8%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

22.1%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugano's performance.

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and HJK might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that HJK could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.6%	0%	11.4%

Lugano - HJK Predictions

Users Predictions: Lugano will win (31 of 35 users predict this - 88.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.03% – 99.11%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saipi A. (G) 46. Zanotti M. 6. Papadopoulos A. 5. Hajdari A. 26. Marques M. 25. Bislimi U. 8. Grgic A. 29. Belhadj M. 11. Steffen R. 10. Bottani M. (C) 31. Aliseda I.	25. Nijhuis T. (G) 2. Lyons-Foster B. 3. Antzoulas G. 5. O'Shaughnessy D. (C) 30. Pallas N. 17. Bande H. 23. Kokcu O. 6. Halme A. 8. Kanellopoulos G. 7. Hostikka S. 94. Erwin L.
Substitutes
2. Brault-Guillard Z. 21. Cimignani Y. 27. Dos Santos D. 20. Doumbia O. 22. El Wafi A. 18. Mahou H. 17. Mai L. 13. Ndiaye C. (G) 58. Osigwe S. (G) 93. Przybylko K. 28. Ryter Y.	99. Albanese A. 24. Boamah M. 42. Meriluoto K. 22. Moller L. 1. Ost J. (G) 80. Palumets K. 9. Plange L. 37. Tanaka A. 4. Toivio J.
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	Korkeakunnas T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Hajdari A. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Papadopoulos A. ⚽, Grgic A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', 2 - 0, Marques M. ⚽,
60', Halme A. ↓, Palumets K. ↑,
60', Hostikka S. ↓, Moller L. ↑,
65', Bottani M. ↓, Przybylko K. ↑,
65', Bislimi U. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,
65', Aliseda I. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
75', Kanellopoulos G. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
75', Erwin L. ↓, Plange L. ↑,
77', Belhadj M. ↓, Doumbia O. ↑,
88', Marques M. ↓, El Wafi A. ↑,
88', Kokcu O. ↓, Meriluoto K. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 0, Dos Santos D. ⚽, Przybylko K. (A),

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

Lugano is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches HJK is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Lugano is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Lugano to win the game is with odds 1.44.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
29.09.24	Lugano - Winterthur	2:1 ✺
22.09.24	Sion - Lugano	0:0 ✺
18.09.24	Lausanne-Sport - Lugano	1:2 ✺
Swiss Cup
14.09.24	Rapperswil-Jona - Lugano	1:3 ✺
Swiss Super League
01.09.24	Lugano - St. Gallen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WTWWT
- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
28.09.24	HJK - Ilves	0:1 ✺
20.09.24	VPS Vaasa - HJK	1:1 ✺
14.09.24	HJK - SJK	2:2 ✺
01.09.24	VPS Vaasa - HJK	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
29.08.24	HJK - KÍ Klaksvík	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LTTWW

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