Match Info

Serie D - Group C - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Luparense		Adriese

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.95	2.95
	2.25	2.98	3
	2.46	3.00	2.84	Watch
	2.45	2.8	2.8
	2.29	2.95	3.07
	2.42	3	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.32)	2.95 ↓ (3.33)	2.92 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luparense
38.4%

Draw
30.6%

Adriese
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

27.2%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

27.1%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luparense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Adriese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luparense than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adriese than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Luparense - Adriese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Syku T. ⚽,
24', 2 - 0, Syku T. ⚽,
38', 3 - 0, Addiego Mobilio A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
67', 4 - 0, Coniglio F. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 in the zone Serie D ~ Group C (Play Out: ) and 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group C (Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luparense won 2.

Luparense has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Adriese's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Adriese may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Luparense is a strong favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Luparense won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:20. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Luparense won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:10. (average 1.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Luparense	6	4	2	0	14:3	11	14

Last Results with these Odds

Luparense - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 39.11%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luparense FC
Italian Serie D - Group C
21.12.25	Luparense - Este	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Vigasio - Luparense	5:0 ✺
07.12.25	Luparense - Conegliano	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Mestre - Luparense	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Luparense - Obermais	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLTTW
- US Adriese
Italian Serie D - Group C
20.12.25	Brian Lignano - Adriese	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Adriese - Union Clodiense	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Campodarsego - Adriese	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Adriese - Calvi Noale	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Cjarlins Muzane - Adriese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group C
07.09.25	Adriese - Luparense	1:1
23.02.25	Luparense - Adriese	2:2
23.10.24	Adriese - Luparense	1:0
21.01.24	Luparense - Adriese	3:2
24.09.23	Adriese - Luparense	0:1
12.02.23	Luparense - Adriese	1:1
09.10.22	Adriese - Luparense	2:0

Luparense - Adriese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide