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Current Win Probability
Lusitano GC 54%
Draw 27.4%
Covilhã 18.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
43.4%
31%
25.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.4%
27.4%
28.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lusitano GC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lusitano GC's performance.
Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Covilhã might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (-15.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lusitano GC that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+10.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Covilhã could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Lusitano GC - Covilhã Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Martins D. (G) 10. Aguas M. 7. Batalha R. 13. Bura 30. Davou S. 5. Diagne O. 9. Lopes D. 37. Monteiro R. 4. Santana C. 23. Sequeira D. 21. Soares M.
1. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 45. Aidara M. 6. Barbosa A. 80. Cascalheira G. 23. Gomes E. 9. Guilherme Silva 5. Innusah H. 2. Kauan 99. Niang C. 18. Pacheco J. 4. Silva D.
Substitutes
11. Andrade Male S. A. 8. Baptista T. 71. Buyla J. 31. Lemes M. (G) 19. Mota L. 87. Mussole J. 27. Rosa S. 20. Silva D. 15. Sousa A.
14. Brito P. 8. Coelho R. 74. Coutinho T. 21. Cruz J. 12. Duarte F. (G) 11. Ekanga Ondoa H. O. 22. Gomes Silva E. 17. Peixoto R. 7. Pires D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 1 - 0, Batalha R. ⚽, Soares M. (A),
38', Diagne O. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Innusah H. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kauan ↓, Danny ↑,
46', Aguas M. ↓, Baptista T. ↑,
46', Lopes D. ↓, Mota L. ↑,
52', 1 - 2, Niang C. ⚽, Silva D. (A),
59', Batalha R. ↓, Andrade Male S. A. ↑,
59', Diagne O. ↓, Buyla J. ↑,
78', Soares M. ↓, Silva D. ↑,
79', 2 - 2, Silva D. ⚽,
80', Cascalheira G. ↓, Cruz J. ↑,
86', Pacheco J. ↓, Gomes Silva E. ↑,
86', Andrade Male S. A. 🟨,
89', Santana C. 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,
Preview
A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 6 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ))
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lusitano GC won 4.
In recent matches, Lusitano GC has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Covilhã is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
In this match, Lusitano GC is considered a favorite.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Lusitano GC won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.5:0.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Lusitano GC won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).
Portugal
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Martins D. (G) 
Bura 
Davou S. 
Diagne O. 
Santana C. 
Aidara M. 
Innusah H. 
Andrade Male S. A. 
Buyla J. 
Mussole J. 
Ekanga Ondoa H. O. 
Pires D. 
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