Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 4

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Mafra		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.60	5.00
	1.72	3.25	4.40
	1.61	3.74	5.75
	1.76	3.49	4.64	Watch
	1.53	3.80	6.15
	1.66	3.53	5.45
	1.61	3.40	4.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.97)	3.54 ↑ (2.9)	5.18 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
56.3%

Draw
26%

Covilhã
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

30.8%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mafra's performance.

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Covilhã might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Mafra - Covilhã Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Silva P. (G) 22. Xico 2. Camara M. 5. Cardoso G. 66. Ferreira J. 6. Maiga Y. 37. Ba A. 7. Matos R. 46. Sambu B. (C) 9. Niang M. 11. Leandro Alves	1. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 22. Gomes Silva E. 2. Kauan 23. Gomes E. 45. Aidara M. 4. Silva D. 6. Barbosa A. (C) 5. Innusah H. 80. Cascalheira G. 9. Guilherme Silva 99. Niang C.
Substitutes
20. Deme A. 21. Fati E. 18. Goba Zakpa 1. Lemos F. (G) 90. Moreira R. 8. Neves L. 42. Ngom A. 13. Raposo C. 76. Teixeira L.	14. Brito P. 8. Coelho R. 21. Cruz J. 12. Duarte F. (G) 11. Ekanga Ondoa H. O. 96. Jailson 18. Pacheco J. 17. Peixoto R. . Pires D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Ba A. 🟨,
10', Barbosa A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', Maiga Y. 🟨,
64', Guilherme Silva ↓, Ekanga Ondoa H. O. ↑,
65', Matos R. ↓, Neves L. ↑,
65', Ferreira J. ↓, Moreira R. ↑,
65', Leandro Alves ↓, Ngom A. ↑,
66', Moreira R. 🟨,
70', 1 - 0, Xico ⚽, Ba A. (A),
73', 🟨,
74', Maiga Y. 🟨,
74', Niang C. 🟨,
81', Barbosa A. ↓, Jailson ↑,
81', Niang M. ↓, Goba Zakpa ↑,
90', Jailson 🟥,
90+1', Sambu B. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 7 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 3.

Mafra has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In this match, Mafra is a strong favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:21. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mafra won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Taça de Portugal
29.08.26	Atlético da Malveira - Mafra	2:3 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
22.08.26	Lusitano GC - Mafra	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Atlético CP - Mafra	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Mafra - Sintrense	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	Mafra - Alverca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WLTLW
- Sporting Covilhã
Taça de Portugal
30.08.26	Covilhã - Mortágua	0:1 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
22.08.26	Covilhã - Atlético CP	0:3 ✺
16.08.26	Vitória de Sernache - Covilhã	0:0 ✺
08.08.26	Covilhã - União de Santarém	2:0 ✺
01.05.26	Covilhã - Amora	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
13.12.25	Mafra - Covilhã	2:0
14.09.25	Covilhã - Mafra	0:0
Portuguese Liga 2
24.04.23	Covilhã - Mafra	1:2
04.11.22	Mafra - Covilhã	3:2
19.03.22	Covilhã - Mafra	2:0
31.10.21	Mafra - Covilhã	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
01.08.21	Covilhã - Mafra	3:1

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