Match Info

Serie D - Round 12

Date: 13 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena da Amazonia (Manaus)


	Manaus		Águia de Marabá

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.45	5.7
	1.54	3.47	6.31
				Watch
	1.54	3.6	5.82
	1.75	3.36	4.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.82)	3.47 ↑ (3.3)	5.55 ↑ (3.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manaus
57.2%

Draw
26.3%

Águia de Marabá
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

27.5%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

26.9%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manaus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Manaus's performance.

Águia de Marabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Águia de Marabá might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manaus than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Manaus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Águia de Marabá than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Águia de Marabá could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Manaus - Águia de Marabá Predictions

Users Predictions: Manaus will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manaus will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Mauricio Pinto ⚽,
8', 2 - 0, Thiago Spice ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 1, Kaique ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', 2 - 2, Kaique ⚽,
65', Brenno 🟥,
69', 2 - 3, Thalyson ⚽,
84', 3 - 3, Lila G. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 5).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Águia de Marabá may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Manaus is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Manaus won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Manaus won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manaus FC
Brazilian Serie D
06.07.25	Manaus - Tuna Luso Brasileira	2:1 ✺
28.06.25	Manauara - Manaus	2:2 ✺
15.06.25	Manaus - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio	1:2 ✺
07.06.25	Independência - Manaus	1:0 ✺
31.05.25	Manaus - Independência	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTLLW
- Águia de Marabá
Brazilian Serie D
05.07.25	Águia de Marabá - Manauara	0:1 ✺
29.06.25	Tuna Luso Brasileira - Águia de Marabá	2:0 ✺
14.06.25	Trem - Águia de Marabá	2:1 ✺
07.06.25	Águia de Marabá - Humaitá	6:0 ✺
01.06.25	Humaitá - Águia de Marabá	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
03.05.25	Águia de Marabá - Manaus	1:1
Brazilian Copa Verde
06.02.25	Manaus - Águia de Marabá	3:2

Manaus - Águia de Marabá: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide