Match Info

WSL - Round 5

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Lowe G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Canada	SportsNet 1, Sportsnet+
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Greece	ERT Sports 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	U-NEXT
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	Sky Sport Select
Norway	VG+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
United-kingdom	BBC Radio 5 Live, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky One
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
World	OneFootball TV


	Manchester City		Arsenal LFC

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.5	2.75
	2.25	3.30	2.65
	2.25	3.3	2.65
	2.35	3.53	2.72
	2.4	3.55	2.69	Watch
	2.3	3.45	2.65
	2.34	3.89	2.72
	2.29	3.4	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.82)	3.49 ↑ (3.34)	2.69 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
39.7%

Draw
26.2%

Arsenal LFC
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

27.8%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

28%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Manchester City's performance.

Arsenal LFC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arsenal LFC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Manchester City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal LFC than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arsenal LFC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Manchester City - Arsenal LFC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Yamashita A. (G) 37. Wamser C. 4. Rose J. 5. Greenwood A. (C) 21. Charles N. 25. Hasegawa Y. 17. Coffey S. 20. Fujino A. 7. Mead B. 11. Hemp L. 9. Shaw K.	28. Borbe A. (G) 2. Fox E. 6. Williamson L. 3. Wubben-Moy C. 22. Batlle O. 32. Cooney-Cross K. 4. Stanway G. 19. Baum L. 10. Little K. (C) 8. Caldentey M. 23. Russo A.
Substitutes
24. Beney I. 19. Blindkilde L. 18. Casparij K. 6. Clinton G. 1. Cumings E. (G) 53. Davies M. 8. Fowler M. 28. Prior G. 13. Wienroither L.	25. Blackstenius S. 7. Catley S. 29. Cerci S. 9. Foord C. 31. Holmberg S. 12. Leonhardsen-Maanum F. 16. Misa (G) 14. Reuteler G. 11. Smith O.
Coaches
Jeglertz A.	Slegers R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Baum L. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 1, Hemp L. ⚽, Charles N. (A),
45+3', Caldentey M. ↓, Foord C. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
49', 1 - 2, Russo A. ⚽,
62', Wamser C. ↓, Beney I. ↑,
62', Mead B. ↓, Fowler M. ↑,
62', Charles N. ↓, Casparij K. ↑,
63', 2 - 2, Casparij K. ⚽, Hemp L. (A),
68', Stanway G. ↓, Blackstenius S. ↑,
68', Baum L. ↓, Smith O. ↑,
70', Coffey S. ↓, Blindkilde L. ↑,
72', 3 - 2, Hemp L. ⚽, Hasegawa Y. (A),
81', Fox E. ↓, Holmberg S. ↑,
81', Batlle O. ↓, Cerci S. ↑,
82', Smith O. 🟨,
84', 4 - 2, Shaw K. ⚽, Fujino A. (A),
90+2', Fujino A. ↓, Clinton G. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1st and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manchester City won 2.

Manchester City is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Arsenal LFC has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Manchester City may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Manchester City: Knaak R. (Ankle Injury) Lohmann S. (Muscle Injury) Miedema V. (Knee Injury) Shimizu R. (Thigh Injury).

Confirmed absences for Arsenal LFC: Agyemang M. (Knee Injury) Reid K. (Knee Injury) van Domselaar D. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Arsenal LFC: De Almeida E. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Manchester City has recorded 8 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:32 (averaging 1.3:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Manchester City against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 16:13 goals (averaging 2:1.6 per game).

Outrights of English WSL for now

Manchester City W: 26.81% Arsenal W: 14.52%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Manchester City W	5	5	0	0	16:6	10	15
10	Arsenal W	5	1	2	2	4:6	-2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City WFC
UEFA Champions League Women
01.10.26	Manchester City - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
English WSL
26.09.26	Charlton Athletic - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
22.09.26	Bayern Munich - Manchester City	2:2 ✺
English WSL
18.09.26	Manchester City - Liverpool LFC	4:2 ✺
13.09.26	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TWTWW
- Arsenal LFC
UEFA Champions League Women
30.09.26	Paris FC - Arsenal LFC	2:2 ✺
English WSL
27.09.26	Chelsea - Arsenal LFC	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
22.09.26	Arsenal LFC - HB Køge	1:0 ✺
English WSL
19.09.26	Arsenal LFC - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Arsenal LFC - Crystal Palace	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

English WSL
08.02.26	Arsenal LFC - Manchester City	1:0
04.10.25	Manchester City - Arsenal LFC	3:2
English League Cup Women
06.02.25	Arsenal LFC - Manchester City	1:2
English WSL
02.02.25	Manchester City - Arsenal LFC	3:4
22.09.24	Arsenal LFC - Manchester City	2:2
05.05.24	Manchester City - Arsenal LFC	1:2
English FA Cup Women
11.02.24	Arsenal LFC - Manchester City	0:1

Manchester City - Arsenal LFC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide