Match Info

Druga NL - Round 29

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday


	Marsonia		Trnje Zagreb

	1	X	2
	1.47	4.8	4.7
	1.46	4.74	4.58
	1.48	4.9	4.81
	1.44	4.7	5.2
	1.47	4.8	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (2.2)	4.79 ↑ (4.26)	4.8 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marsonia
62.1%

Draw
19%

Trnje Zagreb
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

21.4%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

20.9%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marsonia's performance.

Trnje Zagreb has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Trnje Zagreb might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsonia than the current prediction. (-21.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marsonia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trnje Zagreb than the current prediction. (+19.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Trnje Zagreb could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Marsonia - Trnje Zagreb Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Didovic I. ⚽,
14', 2 - 0, ⚽,
20', 3 - 0, ⚽,
37', 4 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 5 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marsonia won 2.

Recent form of Marsonia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Trnje has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Marsonia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Marsonia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 2:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Marsonia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Marsonia
Croatian Druga NL
16.05.25	Karlovac - Marsonia	6:0 ✺
10.05.25	Marsonia - Bjelovar	3:1 ✺
02.05.25	Hrvatski Dragovoljac - Marsonia	5:1 ✺
19.04.25	Jadran Luka Ploče - Marsonia	4:1 ✺
12.04.25	Marsonia - Hrvace	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWLLL
- Trnje Zagreb
Croatian Druga NL
17.05.25	Trnje Zagreb - Solin	3:1 ✺
10.05.25	Jadran Poreč - Trnje Zagreb	0:0 ✺
03.05.25	Grobničan - Trnje Zagreb	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Trnje Zagreb - Karlovac	0:4 ✺
18.04.25	Bjelovar - Trnje Zagreb	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Croatian Druga NL
23.11.24	Trnje Zagreb - Marsonia	5:0
13.04.24	Marsonia - Trnje Zagreb	2:4
07.10.23	Trnje Zagreb - Marsonia	0:2
25.03.23	Trnje Zagreb - Marsonia	2:1
17.09.22	Marsonia - Trnje Zagreb	4:2
Croatian 3 HNL Promotion Play Offs
18.06.22	Marsonia - Trnje Zagreb	3:0

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