Match Info

Premier League - Round 20

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday


	Mathare United		Tusker

	1	X	2
	3.05	2.62	2.45
	2.98	2.71	2.5
	3.08	2.67	2.54	Watch
	3	2.5	2.45
	3.11	2.7	2.48
	3	2.66	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↓ (3.06)	2.64 ↓ (2.94)	2.49 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathare United
29.7%

Draw
34.1%

Tusker
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

31.1%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

31.2%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathare United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Tusker has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathare United than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Mathare United - Tusker Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Kapaito E. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
69', 1 - 1, ⚽,
70', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mathare United won 1.

Mathare United is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tusker has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mathare United won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:25. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mathare United won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.6:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathare United
Kenyan Premier League
31.01.26	Mathare United - Kenya CB	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Posta Rangers - Mathare United	1:1 ✺
16.01.26	Mathare United - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Mathare United - Muranga Seal	0:2 ✺
21.12.25	Bandari - Mathare United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTWLL
- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
31.01.26	Tusker - Posta Rangers	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Kenya CB - Tusker	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Tusker - Bandari	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Tusker - AFC Leopards	0:4 ✺
21.12.25	APS Bomet - Tusker	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
01.10.25	Tusker - Mathare United	0:0
27.04.25	Mathare United - Tusker	2:1
07.12.24	Tusker - Mathare United	2:0
12.04.23	Mathare United - Tusker	0:2
18.02.23	Tusker - Mathare United	2:1
28.05.22	Mathare United - Tusker	Canceled
30.12.21	Tusker - Mathare United	4:1

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