Match Info

Premier League - Round 1

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Ulinzi Stars		Tusker

	1	X	2
	4.2	2.62	1.98
	4.27	2.61	1.97
	4.34	2.75	2	Watch
	4.15	2.55	1.93
	4.3	2.66	2
	4.3	2.7	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.26 ↑ (2.65)	2.65 ↓ (2.85)	1.98 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulinzi Stars
21%

Draw
33.8%

Tusker
45.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.3%

31.9%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulinzi Stars has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ulinzi Stars's form might have worsened.

Tusker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tusker's recent form is better than expected.

Ulinzi Stars - Tusker Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
68', 0 - 1, ⚽,
75', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulinzi Stars won 0.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulinzi Stars won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 11:23. (average 0.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulinzi Stars won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.7:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Tusker	1	1	0	0	2:0	2	3
17	Ulinzi Stars	3	0	2	1	1:3	-2	2

Last Results with these Odds

Ulinzi Stars - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.35%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulinzi Stars
Kenyan Premier League
31.05.26	Posta Rangers - Ulinzi Stars	0:1 ✺
23.05.26	Ulinzi Stars - Mathare United	2:1 ✺
13.05.26	Ulinzi Stars - AFC Leopards	0:2 ✺
Kenyan FKF Cup
03.05.26	Ulinzi Stars - Tusker	1:2 ✺
Kenyan Premier League
25.04.26	Bandari - Ulinzi Stars	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWLLW
- Tusker
CAF Confederation Cup
12.09.26	Tusker - Al-Ahli Wad Madani	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Al-Ahli Wad Madani - Tusker	2:2 ✺
CECAFA Clubs Cup
29.07.26	Tusker - Rayon Sports	0:1 ✺
26.07.26	Al-Hilal Club of Omdurman - Tusker	2:0 ✺
Kenyan FKF Cup
14.06.26	Tusker - Police FC	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan FKF Cup
03.05.26	Ulinzi Stars - Tusker	1:2
Kenyan Premier League
05.12.25	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	1:0
25.01.25	Ulinzi Stars - Tusker	0:1
23.10.24	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	1:1
21.04.24	Ulinzi Stars - Tusker	0:1
01.11.23	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	0:1
Kenyan FKF Cup
20.05.23	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	1:0

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