Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 8

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Toho (Fukushima)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Fukushima United		Matsumoto Yamaga

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.98	3.55	2.02	Watch
	3.1	3.99	1.99
	2.53	4.07	2.34	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2
	3	3.65	2.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↓ (3.03)	3.75 ↑ (3.67)	2.08 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fukushima United
31.5%

Draw
24.4%

Matsumoto Yamaga
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

25.3%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

25%

44.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fukushima United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fukushima United than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Fukushima United - Matsumoto Yamaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Yoshimaru K. (G) 19. Fujita J. 17. Fujitani T. 5. Toma H. 23. Anzai T. 10. Harigaya T. 14. Nakamura T. 6. Uehata U. 7. Ashibe K. 18. Ishii R. 8. Okada Y.	23. Koma R. (G) 25. Shirai T. 43. Kaneko K. 36. Matsumura G. 8. Fukazawa Y. 2. Oda I. 46. Yasunaga R. 30. Sawazaki R. 40. Higuchi D. 41. Murakoshi K. 9. Kato T.
Substitutes
77. Chiba T. 32. Einaga T. 20. Izumi S. 78. Jung Sung-Ryong (G) 30. Kano K. 11. Miura K. 9. Shimizu K. 26. Tanaka K. 1. Ueda T. (G)	38. Fujieda K. 50. Hayakawa K. 39. Inoue A. 33. Kim J. H. (G) 44. Lee T. 7. Matsuoka R. 27. Ninomiya J. 24. Ogawa D. 19. Tanaka S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Ashibe K. ↓, Shimizu K. ↑,
33', 0 - 1, Oda I. ⚽, Murakoshi K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Harigaya T. ↓, Kano K. ↑,
51', 0 - 2, Yasunaga R. ⚽, Murakoshi K. (A),
55', 0 - 3, Oda I. ⚽, Yasunaga R. (A),
64', 1 - 3, Shimizu K. (Penalty Awarded),
66', Ishii R. ↓, Einaga T. ↑,
75', Kato T. ↓, Fujieda K. ↑,
83', Sawazaki R. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
86', Anzai T. ↓, Chiba T. ↑,
86', Nakamura T. ↓, Izumi S. ↑,
88', Oda I. ↓, Ogawa D. ↑,
88', Higuchi D. ↓, Matsuoka R. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fukushima United won 3.

Fukushima United is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Matsumoto Yamaga is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Fukushima United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Fukushima United won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Fukushima United won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 0.8:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Fukushima United - the odds 3.03 are the expected chance of winning is 30.66%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Matsumoto Yamaga - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 44.03%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fukushima United
Japan J2 J3 League
21.03.26	Fukushima United - Fujieda MYFC	3:4 penalties ✺
15.03.26	Gifu - Fukushima United	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Fukushima United - Nagano Parceiro	4:2 ✺
28.02.26	Júbilo Iwata - Fukushima United	1:0 penalties ✺
21.02.26	Omiya Ardija - Fukushima United	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWLL
- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J2 J3 League
21.03.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Gifu	3:2 penalties ✺
14.03.26	Nagano Parceiro - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:5 ✺
07.03.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Consadole Sapporo	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Ventforet Kofu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Júbilo Iwata - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
05.10.25	Fukushima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0
07.06.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Fukushima United	1:2
01.12.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Fukushima United	1:1
27.07.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Fukushima United	1:1
17.03.24	Fukushima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0
11.11.23	Fukushima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:1
16.07.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Fukushima United	1:2

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