Match Info

A-League - Round 11

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV 2 Asia
Australia	10 Drama, Channel 10, Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV 2, Vidio
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV 2
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
Philippines	SPOTV 2
Singapore	SPOTV 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	SPOTV 2, True ID, True Premier Football 5
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 3, TNT Sports 4
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV 2


	Melbourne City		Sydney

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.6	3.5	Watch
	1.98	3.55	3.45	Watch
	2	3.75	3.49	Watch
	2	3.4	3.4
	2.12	3.56	3.52	Watch
	1.95	3.75	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.23)	3.6 ↑ (3.32)	3.48 ↑ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne City
46.9%

Draw
26.1%

Sydney
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

27.8%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

27.7%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melbourne City's performance.

Sydney has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melbourne City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sydney than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	16.7%	41.7%

Melbourne City - Sydney Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Melbourne City will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Sydney will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne City: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beach P. (G) 13. Atkinson N. 22. Ferreyra G. 26. Souprayen S. 16. Behich A. 27. Trewin K. 47. Rahmani K. 30. Kuen A. 39. Durakovic E. 15. Nabbout A. 35. Memeti M.	12. Devenish-Meares H. (G) 23. Grant R. 32. Tisserand M. 5. Grant A. 17. Garuccio B. 36. Youlley R. 24. Okon-Engstler P. 11. Walatee A. 7. Quispe Cordova P. A. 35. Toure A. 9. Campuzano V.
Substitutes
38. Baker B. 4. Bonetig L. 17. Caputo M. 10. Kanamori T. 44. Kutleshi B. 40. Nieuwenhuizen J. (G) 19. Schreiber Z.	44. Akon A. 6. Hollman C. 8. Kamijo W. 41. Popovic A. 20. Quintal T. 13. Wood P. 30. Zaverdinos A. (G)
Coaches
Vidmar A.	Talay U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Ferreyra G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Kuen A. 🟨,
59', Youlley R. ↓, Hollman C. ↑,
71', Walatee A. ↓, Akon A. ↑,
77', Memeti M. ↓, Kanamori T. ↑,
77', Nabbout A. ↓, Caputo M. ↑,
80', Souprayen S. 🟨,
81', Kuen A. ↓, Baker B. ↑,
86', Toure A. ↓, Quintal T. ↑,
86', Campuzano V. ↓, Wood P. ↑,
86', Ferreyra G. ↓, Kutleshi B. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Melbourne City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sydney has had a series of away games.

Melbourne City could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Melbourne City: Leckie M. (Hamstring Injury) Lopane A. (Ankle Injury) Mazzeo B. (Muscle Injury) Nieuwenhuizen J. (Knee Injury) Rashani E. (Muscle Injury) Shillington H. (Concussion) Wong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sydney: Okon-Engstler P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 39:24. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne City won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:11. (average 2.7:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City
Australian A-League
28.12.25	Melbourne City - Perth Glory	1:3 ✺
23.12.25	Melbourne City - Macarthur FC	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
10.12.25	FC Seoul - Melbourne City	1:1 ✺
Australian A-League
06.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTLTW
- Sydney FC
Australian A-League
20.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Sydney	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Perth Glory - Sydney	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Sydney	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Sydney	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Sydney - Melbourne Victory	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
03.05.25	Melbourne City - Sydney	5:1
29.03.25	Sydney - Melbourne City	2:3
24.02.24	Sydney - Melbourne City	1:1
03.11.23	Melbourne City - Sydney	2:0
Australian Cup
24.09.23	Melbourne City - Sydney	1:2
Australian A-League
19.05.23	Melbourne City - Sydney	4:0
12.05.23	Sydney - Melbourne City	1:1

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