Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 26

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Casey Fields (Cranbourne East) 🌤️ ...


	Melbourne City Youth		Green Gully

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.70	3.80	2.15
	2.65	3.6	2.1
	2.78	4.1	2.2
	2.77	4.05	2.17	Watch
	2.65	3.8	2.08
	2.72	3.82	2.12
	2.7	3.75	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.43)	3.85 ↑ (3.4)	2.14 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne City Youth
33.6%

Draw
23.7%

Green Gully
42.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.7%

26.2%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

24.7%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City Youth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Green Gully has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Green Gully's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City Youth than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne City Youth, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Green Gully than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Green Gully, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Melbourne City Youth - Green Gully Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
86', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 13 in the zone Relegation).

Green Gully is Relegated to

Melbourne City Youth has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Green Gully has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Green Gully may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Melbourne City Youth won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City Youth
Australian NPL Victoria
22.08.26	Melbourne City Youth - Bentleigh Greens	2:6 ✺
19.08.26	Preston Lions - Melbourne City Youth	4:0 ✺
15.08.26	Melbourne City Youth - South Melbourne	0:3 ✺
01.08.26	Hume City - Melbourne City Youth	1:0 ✺
25.07.26	Melbourne City Youth - Avondale	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Green Gully SC
Australian NPL Victoria
21.08.26	Green Gully - St Albans Dinamo	1:2 ✺
14.08.26	Oakleigh Cannons - Green Gully	4:1 ✺
31.07.26	Preston Lions - Green Gully	2:2 ✺
24.07.26	Green Gully - Dandenong City	0:0 ✺
17.07.26	Green Gully - Dandenong Thunder	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
15.05.26	Green Gully - Melbourne City Youth	1:3

Melbourne City Youth - Green Gully