Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 21

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday

Location: Green Gully Reserve (Melbourne)


	Green Gully		Dandenong Thunder

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.88	3.80	3.30
	1.85	3.75	3.20
	1.95	4.16	3.28
	1.74	4.26	3.87	Watch
	1.85	4.10	3.20
	2.10	4.08	2.88	Watch
	1.92	3.80	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.02)	3.99 ↑ (3.82)	3.27 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Green Gully
48.6%

Draw
23.1%

Dandenong Thunder
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

23.9%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

21.7%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Green Gully has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Dandenong Thunder has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Green Gully than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Green Gully that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dandenong Thunder than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dandenong Thunder could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Green Gully - Dandenong Thunder Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, ⚽,
22', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 2 - 1, ⚽,
75', 🟥,
84', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 13 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Green Gully won 1.

Recent performances by Green Gully have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Dandenong Thunder's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Green Gully is the team to beat.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Green Gully won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 36:27. (average 2.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Green Gully won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 27:12. (average 3.4:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Green Gully SC
Australian NPL Victoria
10.07.26	Green Gully - Altona Magic	1:3 ✺
03.07.26	Green Gully - Bentleigh Greens	3:0 ✺
28.06.26	South Melbourne - Green Gully	1:2 ✺
20.06.26	Hume City - Green Gully	3:2 ✺
05.06.26	Green Gully - Avondale	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWWLL
- Dandenong Thunder
Australian NPL Victoria
11.07.26	Dandenong Thunder - Bentleigh Greens	2:1 ✺
05.07.26	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	1:0 ✺
27.06.26	Dandenong Thunder - Hume City	1:3 ✺
20.06.26	Avondale - Dandenong Thunder	11:0 ✺
06.06.26	Dandenong Thunder - Caroline Springs George Cross	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
11.04.26	Dandenong Thunder - Green Gully	1:1
16.05.25	Green Gully - Dandenong Thunder	3:1
08.02.25	Dandenong Thunder - Green Gully	2:1
29.06.24	Dandenong Thunder - Green Gully	1:1
22.03.24	Green Gully - Dandenong Thunder	1:1
29.07.23	Dandenong Thunder - Green Gully	1:0
28.04.23	Green Gully - Dandenong Thunder	4:2

Green Gully - Dandenong Thunder: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide